EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5358; (P) 1.5427; (R1) 1.5494; More

EUR/USD recovery and touching of 1.5498 minor resistance today indicates that an intraday low is in place at 1.5360, after toucing mentioned 1.5342/66 cluster support zone. Intraday bias is turned neutral for the moment and some more consolidation could be seen. But another fall is still expected as long as recovery is limited by 1.5644 resistance. Sustained trading below 1.5342 will set the stage for deeper fall to next short term target of 1.4966 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 1.4309 to 1.6019 at 1.4962) and probably below.

In the bigger picture, as mentioned before, EUR/USD's rise from 1.4309 should have completed at 1.6019 with a diagonal triangle pattern that started at 1.5342 and with bearish divergence condition in daily MACD and RSI. Firm break of 1.5342 support, which will also have EUR/USD sustaining below 55 days EMA (now at 1.5488) too, will confirm this case and deeper decline should then be seen to 1.4309 and 1.4966 support zone. However, strong rebound from here , followed by break of 1.5644 resistance, will suggest that price actions from 1.6019 is probably just developing into another sideway consolidation. But still, risk is on the downside before sustained break of 1.6019 high.

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