EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5304; (P) 1.5372; (R1) 1.5462; More

Outlook in EUR/USD remains unchanged. Further recovery to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 1.5508) cannot be ruled out as long as 1.5387 minor support holds. But decline from 1.6019 is still expected to resume as long as 1.5594 resistance remains intact. Below 1.5387 will flip intraday bias back to the downside for 1.5284 low first. Break will confirm such fall has resumed for next short term target of 1.4966 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 1.4309 to 1.6019 at 1.4962) and probably below.

In the bigger picture, as mentioned before, EUR/USD's rise from 1.4309 should have completed at 1.6019 with a diagonal triangle pattern that started at 1.5342 and with bearish divergence condition in daily MACD and RSI. Firm break of 1.5342 support, which will also have EUR/USD sustaining below 55 days EMA (now at 1.5490) too, will confirm this case and deeper decline should then be seen to 1.4309 and 1.4966 support zone. However, strong rebound from here , followed by break of 1.5594 resistance, will suggest that price actions from 1.6019 is probably just developing into another sideway consolidation. But still, risk is on the downside before sustained break of 1.6019 high.

Subscribe to our daily and mid-day newsletter to get this report delivered to your mail box