EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5419; (P) 1.5453; (R1) 1.5516; More

Outlook in EUR/USD remains unchanged. TOuching of 1.5387 minor resistance argues recovery from 1.5284 could have completed at 1.5489. Intraday bias is mildly on the downside for retest of 1.5284 low. Break will confirm whole fall from 1.6019 has resumed for next short term target of 1.4966 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 1.4309 to 1.6019 at 1.4962) and probably below. Meanwhile, above 1.5489 will indicate that correction from 1.5284 is still in progress. But still, decline from 1.6019 should be in force and expected to resume as long as 1.5594 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, as mentioned before, EUR/USD's rise from 1.4309 should have completed at 1.6019 with a diagonal triangle pattern that started at 1.5342 and with bearish divergence condition in daily MACD and RSI. Sustained trading below 55 days EMA (now at 1.5484) will confirm this case and deeper decline should then be seen to 1.4309 and 1.4966 support zone. However, strong rebound from the current level, followed by break of 1.5594 resistance, will suggest that price actions from 1.6019 is probably just developing into another sideway consolidation. But still, short term risk is on the downside before sustained break of 1.6019 high.

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