EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4648; (P) 1.4712; (R1) 1.4791; More

EUR/USD continues to press 1.4807 resistance in early US session. Intraday outlook remains neutral for the moment. As discussed before, with bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD and RSI, firm break of 1.4807 will be an important signal that a short term bottom is finally in place. Further break of 1.4908 will confirm and bring stronger rebound to test 1.5284 double top neckline resistance before staging another fall. On the downside, though, below 1.4571 will indicate that recent fall is still in progress to key medium term support at 1.4309.

In the bigger picture, the double top reversal pattern (1.6019, 1.6038) serves as an important signal of completion of medium term rise from 1.1639 (05 low), which is supported by the decisive break of 55 weeks EMA While it's still early to conclude, recent development continues to build up the case of a medium term reversal. Focus will now be on a) whether key support level of 1.4309, (38.2% retracement of 1.1639 (05 low) to 1.6038 at 1.4358, 61.8% retracement of 1.3262 to 1.6038 at 1.4322) will hold; b) whether next trend line support (1.1825, 1.2483, now at 1.4359) will hold; c) whether weekly MACD will turn negative and d) whether monthly MACD will cross below signal line.

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