EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2525; (P) 1.2634; (R1) 1.2756; More

No change in EUR/USD's outlook as their pair is still bounded in tight range. Three wave corrective structure of the fall from 1.3290 to 1.2389 suggests that consolidation from 1.2329 is still in progress. Further rise is still mildly in favor for 100% projection of 1.2329 to 1.3290 from 1.2389 at 1.3350 to complete the consolidation. Nevertheless, upside is still expected be limited below 1.3768 cluster resistance. On the downside, below 1.2389 will be an important indication that consolidation from 1.2329 has completed and recent down trend has resumed for next target of 50% retracement of 0.8223 to 1.6038 at 1.2131

In the bigger picture, as discussed before, the strength of the fall from 1.6038 reinforces the case that whole decline from 1.6038 is developing into a five wave impulsive fall. The completed decline from 1.4867 to 1.2329 might represent the third wave decline in the five wave sequence. Consolidation from 1.2329 might represent the fourth wave consolidation. Hence, another decline is still expected before making a medium term bottom. Below 1.2329 will target next long term fibonacci level of 50% retracement of 0.8223 to 1.6038 at 1.2131 or even further to 1.1639 key medium term support. On the upside, sustained break of 1.3768 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.6038 to 1.2329 at 1.3746) is needed to invalidate this view and indicate that whole decline from 1.6038 has made a medium term bottom.

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