EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3847; (P) 1.3924; (R1) 1.3977; More

Another rise in EUR/USD cannot be ruled out with 1.3830 minor support intact. But after all, we're favoring bearish case that EUR/USD has topped out as long as 1.4171 resistance holds. Below 1.3830 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the downside first. Sustained break of 1.3793 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2884 to 1.4337 at 1.3782) will confirm rise from 1.2884 has completed at 1.4337. In such case, deeper fall should be seen to channel support at 1.3375 next. On the upside, however, note that a break of 1.4171 resistance will dampen the bearish case and argue that price actions from 1.4337 are merely consolidation in larger rally. Another rise to above 1.4337 should then be seen before topping.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.2329 are treated as consolidation in the down trend from 1.6039 only, with first leg completed at 1.4719, second at 1.2456. Sustained break of mentioned 1.3793 support will argue that the third leg from 1.2456 has completed at 1.4337 too and deeper decline should be seen to 1.2456/2884 support zone. Though, in such case, as we're favoring that it's developing into triangle consolidation, downside should be contained by 1.2456/2884 support zone and bring one more rise to complete the consolidation. On the upside, while another rise cannot be ruled out for the moment, focus will remain on reversal signal as EUR/USD approaches trend line resistance (now at 1.4419).

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