EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4141; (P) 1.4259; (R1) 1.4342; More

Intraday outlook in EUR/USD remains mildly on the downside with 1.4286 minor resistance intact. As noted before, rebound from 1.4045 might have completed at 1.4405 already. Further decline is in favor to retest 1.4045 first. On the upside, above 1.4286 minor resistance will turn intraday outlook neutral again. Break of 1.4405 will invalidate the bearish case and indicate that recent rally is still in progress for another high above 1.4446 before completion.

In the bigger picture, there is no change in the view that rise from 1.2456 is the third leg of the whole consolidation pattern that started at 1.2329. Price actions from 1.3747 may be developing into a diagonal triangle as the fifth wave in such five wave sequence from 1.2456 and should be close to completion. While another high above 1.4446 is possible, upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.2329 at 1.4622 and finally bring reversal. On the downside, below 1.4045 support will be another signal that EUR/USD has already topped out and break of 1.3747 support will be the confirmation. In such case, deeper decline should be seen that sends EUR/USD through 1.2329 low eventually.

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