EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4695; (P) 1.4753; (R1) 1.4832; More

EUR/USD climbs further to as high as 1.4873 earlier today but retreats after hitting 1.4867 key resistance. While further rise cannot be ruled out, we'd continue to expect reversal after 1.4867 was met. On the downside, below 1.4760 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the downside for 1.4483 support first. However, note that a strong break of 1.4867 will invalidate this view and pave the way to 1.5 psychological resistance next.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.2456 is the third leg of the medium term consolidation pattern that started at 1.2329 and has possibly completed its own five wave sequence at 1.4842 already, on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. Break of 1.4177 support will add much credence to this case and further break of 1.3747 support will confirm. In such case, deeper decline should be seen that sends EUR/USD through 1.2329 low eventually. Meanwhile, another rise cannot be ruled out for the moment. But we'd continue to expect strong resistance at 1.4867 to bring reversal finally. However, note that strong sustained break of 1.4867 resistance will dampen this view and opens up the case for retesting 1.6039 record high in medium term.

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