EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3703; (P) 1.3760; (R1) 1.3794; More.

EUR/USD drops to as low as 1.3647 today and remains soft. As noted before, break of 1.3641 minor support will indicate that consolidations from 1.3443 has completed at 1.3817 already. In such case, intraday bias will be flipped to the downside for retesting 1.3435 low. Break will confirm that whole fall from 1.5143 high has resumed. On the upside, in case of another rise, we'd continue to expect upside to be limited by 1.3852 (38.2% retracement of 1.4578 to 1.3443 at 1.3861) and bring down trend resumption.

In the bigger picture, outlook remains unchanged. The three wave rise from 1.2329 is treated as consolidation to fall from 1.6039 only and should have completed at 1.5143 already. Fall from 1.5143 is tentatively treated as resumption of the whole down trend form 1.6039 and should target a new low below 1.2329. Break of 1.4217 support turned resistance is needed to invalidate this bearish view. Otherwise, we'd expect fall 1.5143 to continue even in case of strong rebound.

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