EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2852; (P) 1.2886 (R1) 1.2906; More.

EUR/USD'[s fall from 1.2921 extends further to as low as 1.2735 so far today. The break of 1.2776 minor support indicates that choppy recovery from 1.2587 is finished at 1.2916 already. With 1.2921 resistance intact, fall from 1.3330 is still expected to continue. Intraday bias is mildly on the downside for 1.2587 support first. Break will target target 61.8% retracement of 1.1875 to 1.3330 at 1.2431 next. However, decisive break of 1.2921 will indicate that fall from 1.3330 is possibly completed and will bring stronger rally to retest this high instead.

In the bigger picture, note that EUR/USD is still limited below 55 weeks EMA (now at 1.3346) and thus, there is no indication of medium term bottoming. Whole decline from 1.6039 is possibly still in progress. Such decline is treated as correction to long term up trend and will target 1.1639 support after taking out 1.1875 low. On the upside, though, above 1.3330 will turn focus back to 55 weeks EMA and sustained trading above there will pave the wave to further rise to upper trend line resistance (1.6039, 1.5143, now at 1.4600).

Subscribe to our daily and mid-day newsletter to get this report delivered to your mail box