GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 201.80; (P) 203.27; (R1) 204.18; More

GBP/JPY's strong recovery today, with 4 hours MACD crossing above signal line and touching of 203.31 minor resistance, indicates that an intraday low is in place. Outlook is turned neutral for the moment and further sideway consolidation could be seen. Nevertheless, as mentioned before, prior break of the short term rising trend line suggests that rally from 192.60 could have completed at 208.99 already. Risks remain on the downside as long as GBP/JPY stays below 208.99 resistance. Break of 198.07 support will confirm this case and bring deeper fall to retest 192.60 low.

In the bigger picture, while, fall from 241.35 has completed at 192.60, there is no confirmation of the completion of whole down trend from 251.09 yet. Break of 198.07 support will firstly confirm that rise from 192.60 has completed after meeting correction target of 204.49/213.48 resistance zone. Secondly, the corrective structure of the rise from 192.60 to 208.99 will confirm that it's merely a correction to the medium term down trend only. In other words, whole down trend from 251.09 is probably ready to resume in such case. However, strong rebound from 198.07 will argue that correction from 192.60 is not finished yet and another rise could be seen to 38.2% retracement of 241.35 to 192.60 at 211.22 before completion.

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