GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 203.08; (P) 203.95; (R1) 204.80; More

GBP/JPY struggled to take out 4 hours 55 EMA decisively and weakness mildly again today. With 4 hours MACD dragged below signal line, an intraday top might be in place. Bias is now mildly on the downside for 1.9978 low first and break will indicate fall from 208.99 has resumed and put 198.07 into focus. Further break of 198.07 will confirm whole rebound from 192.60 has completed and bring retest of this low. On the upside, however, above 205.02 will indicate rise from 199.78 is still in progress towards 208.99 resistance.

In the bigger picture, while fall from 241.35 has completed at 192.60, there is no confirmation of the completion of whole down trend from 251.09 yet. Break of 198.07 support will firstly confirm that rise from 192.60 has completed after meeting correction target of 204.49/213.48 resistance zone. Secondly, the corrective structure of the rise from 192.60 to 208.99 will confirm that it's merely a correction to the medium term down trend only. In other words, whole down trend from 251.09 is probably ready to resume in such case. However, strong rebound from 198.07 will argue that correction from 192.60 is not finished yet and another rise could be seen to 38.2% retracement of 241.35 to 192.60 at 211.22 before completion.

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