GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 200.23; (P) 201.25; (R1) 201.99; More

GBP/JPY falls further to as low as 199.79 today so far, just 1 pip above mentioned target of 199.78 support level. At this point, intraday bias remains on the downside as long as 202.28 minor resistance holds. Firm break of 199.78 will encourage deeper decline to retest 192.60 low. On the upside, above 202.28 will argue that a short term bottom is finally in place after meeting/failing 199.78 target and bring stronger rebound to 206.51 resistance. Though, upside should be limited below 210.54 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 192.60 has completed at 215.87 after being limited below 100% projection of 192.60 to 208.99 from 199.78 at 216.17 as well as 55 weeks EMA, on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. The three wave structure of rise from 192.60 to 215.87 is consistent with the view that it's merely a correction to the the medium term down trend from 241.35. Break of 199.78 support will confirm this case and bring retest of 192.60 low. On the upside, above 210.54 structure resistance is needed to indicate fall from 215.87 has completed. Otherwise, another decline is still expected even in case of strong rebound.

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