GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 168.14; (P) 172.26; (R1) 174.71; More

GBP/JPY's recent decline resumes after brief recovery and dives to as low as 165.99 today, meeting mentioned target of 100% projection of 215.87 to 184.47 from 197.42 at 166.02. At this point, intraday bias remains on the downside. Sustained break of 166.02 fibo level will encourage deeper fall to next target of 100% projection of 251.09 to 192.60 from 215.87 at 157.38. On the upside, above 170.88 will turn intraday outlook neutral first. But consolidation should be relatively brief as long as 176.39 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, 180 psychological and long term rising support trend line support (129.32, 148.19) are both taken out decisively. Down trend from 251.09 is still in progress and should be targeting 100% projection of 251.09 to 192.60 from 215.87 at 157.38 next. Note that the three wave structure of price actions from 129.32 (95 low) to 251.09 is treated as consolidation in the long term down trend. Having said that the current fall from 251.09 could extend further to 148.19 (00 low) or even to 129.32. On the upside, above 197.42 is needed to confirm that a medium term bottom is formed. Otherwise, outlook remains bearish even in case of strong short term rebound.

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