GBP/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 196.60; (P) 197.28; (R1) 198.01; More

GBP/JPY recovers mildly today but after it's still staying in tight range. As discussed before, rebound from 192.60 has possibly completed at 201.84 already. Intraday bias remains mildly on the downside and further decline is expected to retest 192.60 low. Break will confirm recent down trend has resumed for next downside target of 190.00 psychological level. on the upside, above 199.28 minor resistance will suggest that correction from 192.60 is probably still in progress and another rise should be seen. Though, upside is still expected to be limited by 203.47 support turned resistance and bring down trend resumption.

In the bigger picture, whole up trend from 148.19 should have ended at 251.09 already. Down trend from there is still in progress. Sustained break of 190 psychological level, which is close to 161.8% projection of 251.09 to 219.32 from 241.35 at 189.94, will set the stage for further decline towards the long term rising trend line support (now at 174.16).

However, above 203.47 resistance zone will indicate that fall from 241.35 has possibly completed. Retest of short term channel resistance (now at 207.52) should be seen first. Break will confirm this case and indicate that a medium term bottom is already in place.

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