GBP/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 146.31; (P) 149.69; (R1) 152.64; More

With an intraday low in place at 146.75, GBP/JPY's recovery continues today. But after all, as noted before, upside is expected to be limited by 154.03 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 149.30 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the downside. Further break of 146.75 will indicate that decline from 162.56 has resumed for 143.00 key support next.

In the bigger picture, sustained trading below the medium term channel indicates that rise from 118.81, which is treated as correction to the fall from 215.87, has completed at 162.56 already. This view is supported with daily MACD turned negative too. Having said that, we'd expect the fall from 162.56 to extend to retest 118.81 eventually and will likely resume the whole down trend from 215.87. On the upside, though, firm break of 154.03 resistance will argue that fall from 162.56 might be completed in three wave structure, which in turn dampen the above view. In such case, rise from 118.81 might make another high before completion. But after all, we'd still expect reversal to happen in range of 155.88/167.34 (38.2% and 50% retracement of 215.87 to 118.81).

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