GBP/JPY Weekly Outlook

GBP/JPY 's rise from 192.60 resumed last week by surging to as high as 208.99 to close the week strongly. Success break of short term falling channel resistance and 205.09 resistance confirms that decline from 241.35 has already completed at 192.60. From a short term angle, initial bias remains on the upside this week as long as 205.98 minor support holds. Further rally is expected to 210.56/211.22 resistance zone (100% projection of 192.60 to 205.09 from 198.07 at 210.56 and 38.2% retracement of 241.35 to 192.60 at 211.22). On the downside, while below 205.98 will turn intraday outlook neutral first. Though, downside should be contained by 203.54 support and bring rally resumption.

In the bigger picture, while, fall from 241.35 has completed at 192.60, there is no confirmation of the completion of whole down trend from 251.09 yet. Focus is now on the structure of the current rise from 192.60 as well as 219.32 medium term support turned resistance. Though, a break of 198.07 is now needed to shift short term bias back to the downside for retesting 192.60 low. Otherwise, further upside is still in favor, at least in short term.

In the longer term picture, whole up trend from 148.19 have ended at 251.09 already. At the moment, the favored case is that price actions from 129.32 (95 low) has completed a three wave consolidation up to 251.09. Hence, the downtrend from 251.09 is in favor to extend further to long term rising trend line support (now at 174.25) even if the current rebound from 192.60 is much stronger than expected.

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