GBP/JPY Weekly Outlook

GBP/JPY's fall from 215.87 extended further as expected and accelerated to as low as 186.17, breaking 192.60 and 190 psychological support without hesitation. From a short term angle, further decline is still expected as long as 193.59 resistance holds, towards next target of 61.8% projection of 251.09 to 192.60 from 215.87 at 179.72 (close to 180 psychological support). On the upside, above 193.59 will indicate that a short term bottom is possibly in place and stronger rebound could be seen. But rebound should be limited well below 206.51 resistance and bring another fall.

In the bigger picture, decisive break of 192.60 low confirms that whole down trend from 251.09 has resumed and is now target 61.8% projection of 251.09 to 192.60 from 215.87 at 179.72 (close to 180 psychological support) first. While some rebound could be seen, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 215.87 resistance holds.

In the longer term picture, whole up trend from 148.19 have ended at 251.09 already. At the moment, the favored case is that price actions from 129.32 (95 low) has completed a three wave consolidation up to 251.09. Hence, the downtrend from 251.09 is in favor to extend further at least to long term rising trend line support (now at 175.94). Based on the structure of the current fall from 251.09, it's likely that such decline will extend further to test 148.19 low.

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