GBP/JPY Weekly Outlook

GBP/JPY dropped sharply to as low as 138.32 last week and the break of 132.26 support confirms that whole decline from 163.05 has resumed. Initial bias remains on the downside this week and further fall should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 118.81 to 163.05 at 135.70 next. On the upside, above 141.41 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But upside should be limited below 145.26 resistance and bring another fall.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 118.18, which is a correction to the long term down trend from 07 high of 251.90, has completed at 163.05 already. Decline from 163.05 is tentatively treated at resumption of the long term down trend from 2007 high of 251.09 and should target a new low below 118.81. On the upside, break of 150.68 resistance is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

In the longer term picture, fall from 251.09 is treated as resumption of multi decade down trend. Note that the fall from 215.87 is not treated as the fifth wave, but the third wave inside the third wave that started at 241.35. On resumption, the down trend will extend to 61.8% projection of 215.87 to 118.81 from 163.05 at 103.03 next, which is close to 100 psychological support.

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