GBP/JPY Weekly Outlook

GBP/JPY's pull back from 122.04 was contained at 119.58 last week and recovered. With 119.19 minor support intact, rise from 117.29 is still in progress. Initial bias is mildly on the upside this week for 122.04 first. Break will confirm rise resumption for 122.76 resistance. Also, as noted before, rise from 117.29 is viewed as the third leg of the consolidation pattern from 116.83. Break of 122.76 will target a test on 127.30 key resistance. On the downside below 120.22 will turn bias neutral again. Also, note that break of 119.19 will indicate completion of the rebound and flip bias back to the downside for 117.29 instead.

In the bigger picture, consolidation from 116.83 is still in progress and fall from 140.20, which is part of the medium term down trend from 163.05, is not ready to resume yet. While rise from 117.29 might extend further higher, we'd expect strong resistance from 50% retracement of 140.02 to 116.83 at 128.42 to finish the consolidation and bring down trend resumption. We will not consider medium term trend reversal yet before sustained trading above 128.42 fibonacci level.

In the longer term picture, fall from 251.09 is treated as resumption of multi decade down trend. Monthly MACD will likely be dragged down by the current decline, which suggest that the cross is building up downside momentum again. Current development now favors at least a break of 61.8% projection of 215.87 to 118.81 from 163.05 at 103.06, which is close to 100 psychological level, before the cross bottoms.

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