GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6215; (P) 1.6444; (R1) 1.6677; More

GBP/USD's fall from 1.6671 extended further today and 4 hours MACD's break of signal line indicates that an intraday top is in place. Outlook is turned neutral for the moment. Further break of 1.5938 will indicate that rebound from 1.1526 has completed and intraday bias back to the downside for retesting 1.5269 low. On the upside, while further recovery cannot be ruled out, we'd still expect upside to be limited below 1.6786 bring another decline to complete a five wave sequence from 1.8668.

In the bigger picture, while rebound from 1.5269 is strong, there is no confirmation of a medium term bottom yet. There are some different interpretations of the structure of the whole down trend from 2.1161, with different projection targets. The most bearish case is that fall from 2.0158 is the third wave in whole fall from 2.1161 while fall from 1.8668 is the third wave of the fall from 2.0158. In other words, GBP/USD is just in the middle of the whole down trend from 2.1161. The least bearish case is that the fall from 1.8668 is the fifth wave of the whole five wave decline from 2.1161 and is nearing an end. Nevertheless, in any case, the fall from 1.8668 needs to complete a five wave structure before considering that a medium term bottom is formed. Having said that, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.6786 support turned resistance holds.

However, above 1.6786 will indicate that fall from 1.8668 has possibly completed. It will also be the first alert that a medium term bottom is in place and break of 1.7630 will confirm. In such case, some large scale consolidations will follow.

Subscribe to our daily and mid-day newsletter to get this report delivered to your mail box