GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4772; (P) 1.4920; (R1) 1.5065; More

GBP/USD's fall resumes and dives further to as low as 1.4663. At this point, intraday bias remains on the downside as long as 1.5071 minor resistance holds. As discussed before, correction from 1.4557 should have completed with three waves up to 1.5534, retest of 1.4557 low should now be seen. Break will confirm that recent fall from 1.8668 has resumed for 161.8% projection of 2.0158 to 1.7445 from 1.8668 at 1.4278. On the upside, above 1.5071 will turn intraday outlook neutral again but recovery should be limited below 1.5334 resistance and bring decline resumption.

In the bigger picture, there are some different interpretations of the structure of the whole down trend from 2.1161, with different projection targets. Main question is whether fall from 1.8668 is the fifth wave in the five wave sequence from 2.1161 (1.9337, 2.0158, 1.7445, 1.8668, ?) or it's the third wave inside the fall from 2.0158. So far, the later case is in favor and break of 161.8% projection of 2.0158 to 1.7445 from 1.8668 at 1.4278 will path the way to 1.3680 key long term support (01 low).

On the upside, though, above 1.5534 will indicate that, at least, whole decline from 1.8668 has completed and a medium term bottom is possibly in place. Some medium term scale consolidation would then be seen before resuming the down trend from 2.1161.

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