GBP/USD Weekly Outlook

Cable edged higher to 2.0006 last week but reversed following broad based dollar rebound. With an intraday top in place at 2.0006, more consolidation could be seen with risk mildly on the downside for deeper pull back. But still, downside should be contained well above 1.9586 support and bring another rally. Above 2.0006 will indicate that rise from 1.9408 has resumed. As discussed before, rise from 1.9363 represents another rising leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 1.9337 and might extend further to retest 2.0391 to completion the consolidation. Next near term target is 161.8% projection of 1.9363 to 1.9852 from 1.9408 at 2.0199 first.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 2.1161 have made a low at 1.9337. The corrective nature of the rise from 1.9337 to 2.0391 and fall from 2.0391 to 1.9363 suggests that price actions from 1.9337 are developing into sideway consolidation to whole fall from 2.1161. Though, the structure and length of this consolidation could either be in form of a three wave sideway consolidation or in form of five wave triangle pattern. But in either case, another rise is still expected to test 2.0391 resistance. Nevertheless upside of such consolidation should still be limited by 61.8% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.9337 at 2.0464. On the downside, though, below 1.9586 support will be the first signal that the final rise in the consolidation pattern has completed. Sustained break of 1.9337/63 support zone will indicate that decline from 2.1161 has resumed.

In the longer term picture, prior break of medium term rising channel at least indicate that rise from 1.8090 has already completed at 2.1161, so is the medium term up trend from 1.7047 probably. Hence, sustained break of 2.1161 is needed to confirm the whole up trend has resumed. Otherwise, another fall is still expected towards 61.8% retracement of 1.7047 to 2.1161 at 1.8619 after finishing the current consolidation from 1.9337.

Also, while cable is still staying above 55 months EMA (now at 1.8806) as well as the long term trend line support (now at 1.8808) there is no indication of the completion of up trend from 1.3680 (01 low) yet. However, bearish divergence in monthly MACD and RSI suggests that 2.1161 is at least a medium term top and more downside is in favor in medium term even if the long term up trend will resume eventually.

Subscribe to our daily and mid-day newsletter to get this report delivered to your mail box