GBP/USD Weekly Outlook

Despite edging higher to 1.6742 early last week, GBP/USD failed to sustain above 1.6661 resistance and reversed back into prior range. The development argues that the rise to 1.6742 was a terminal impulse and after triangle consolidation and thus GBP/USD has topped out already. However, this is not confirmed by a break of 1.6232 support yet and hence, short term outlook remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, considering bearish divergence conditions in 4 hours MACD and RSI, break of 1.6232 will indicate that 1.6472 is at least a short term top and some deeper decline should then be seen to a test of 1.5810 support next. On the upside, however, above 1.6544 will suggests that fall from 1.6742 is merely a pull back and recent rise is not completed before another high above 1.6742.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.3654 is treated as the third leg of the correction that started at 1.3503, which correct the larger down trend from 2.1161. Such rally from 1.3654 should be in the last stage after meeting target zone of 1.6428/7332 (38.2% and 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503). Indeed, considering last week's sharp reversal, and with daily MACD breaking its down up trend, such rise might have completed at 1.6742 already. Break of 1.5801 support will now be an important signal that the whole correction has finally completed and will turn focus to next key support of 1.4984 for confirmation. Meanwhile, while another rise cannot be ruled out, focus will remain on reversal signal as we'd expect the whole correction from 1.3503 to conclude inside this 1.6428/7332 area.

In the longer term picture, as discussed before, the corrective nature of the multi-decade advance from 1.0463 (85 low) to 2.1161 as well as the impulsive nature of the fall from there suggests that GBP/USD is now in an early stage of a long term down trend. Current rebound from 1.3503 is treated as a correction in the larger down trend only, rather than the start of a new up trend. Hence, the long term down trend is still expected to resume after completing such correction. However, sustained break of 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 will argue that the long term trend in GBP/USD is indeed already changed and we'll reassess the bullish potential in that case.

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