GBPUSD Outlook |
Written by ActionForex.com |
May 05 12 09:11 GMT
GBP/USD Weekly Outlook
GBP/USD edged higher to 1.6300 last week but turned into consolidation since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week and deeper fall could be seen. But downside is expected to be contained by 1.6060 resistance turned support and bring rally resumption. Above 1.6300 will target 100% projection of 1.5234 to 1.5991 from 1.5602 at 1.6359 next. As noted before, whole decline from 1.6764 is finished at 1.5234 and current rise could target this 1.6746 resistance. Nonetheless, break of 1.6060 will dampen this bullish view and turn focus back to 1.5818 support first.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidations to long term down trend from 2.1161, no change in this view. Current development suggests that such consolidation is still in progress with rise from 1.5234 as another rising leg. Some resistance might be seen below 1.6746 if that's a triangle pattern. But this is far from being certain. Indeed, rise from 1.5234 could eventually break 1.7043 resistance before completion. But after all, strong resistance should be seen at 50% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside to conclude the consolidation.
In the longer term picture, the corrective nature of the multi-decade advance from 1.0463 (85 low) to 2.1161 as well as the impulsive nature of the fall from there suggests that GBP/USD is now in an early stage of a long term down trend. Another low below 1.3503 is anticipated after consolidation from 1.3503 is confirmed to be completed.
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