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Action Insight: Market Overview

Action Insight is the most popular section of the site, read by traders around the world. Our team of analysts work around the clock, analyzing the markets from technical and fundamental perspectives in providing the reports in this section to you.



Mid-Day Report: Euro Tumbles after ECB Rate Cut, Dollar Boosted by GDP Print E-mail
Market Overview | Written by ActionForex.com | Nov 07 13 13:34 GMT
Euro tumbles sharply after ECB cut the main refinancing interest rate by 25bps to record low of 0.25%. The marginal lending facility rate was also lowered by 25bps to 0.75%. Deposit rate was held unchanged at 0.00%. The decision itself wasn't a surprise to the markets as deflation risk is expected to force ECB to loosen up policy further some how. Nonetheless, the timing was a surprise to the markets as majority of economists expected ECB to act after getting new staff economic projections in December. EUR/USD powered through 1.34 level after the release. EUR/GBP also powered through 0.8332 support. EUR/JPY took out 132.36 support while EUR/AUD took out 1.4123. All developments suggested Euro is under broad based selling pressing and outlook is bearish in these pairs. Weakness in Euro also dragged down Swiss Franc.
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European Session: Orders and Options Watch Print E-mail
Market Overview | Written by ActionForex.com | Nov 07 13 08:44 GMT
EUR: The single currency traded narrowly as traders await ECB and further sideways trading is in store. At the moment, sell orders are reported at 1.3550, 1.3565 as well as 1.3585, fresh selling interest should emerge around 1.3600, 1.3625 and 1.3640-50. On the downside, bids are raised to 1.3500, 1.3485-90 and 1.3465-75, more buy orders in good size are tipped at 1.3445-50 with stops building up below 1.3440, fresh demand should emerge around option barrier at 1.3400 (stops below). Option expires today include: 1.3400, 1.3425, 1.3450 (1 bln), 1.3500 (large), 1.3550, 1.3570, 1.3600 (large), 1.3650, 1.3700 and 1.3750.
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Daily Report: Euro Recovered ahead of ECB, Aussie Lower on Jobs Print E-mail
Market Overview | Written by ActionForex.com | Nov 07 13 03:04 GMT
Euro recovered mildly overnight against other major currencies but strength is so far limited. While there were some speculations that ECB would cut interest rates today, it's far more likely that the central bank will hold rates unchanged at historical low at 0.50%. According to a Bloomberg survey, BofA, RBS and UBS are the only three out of seventy economists surveyed that expected a 25bps cut. Falling inflation and risk of deflation is starting to pile pressure on the ECB to cut rates. But, opinion on whether it will cut this year is divided. And economists are expecting that ECB would at least wait for the latest inflation and growth projection in December before acting. Judging from the lack of momentum in this week's recovery, risk in Euro is heavily skewed to the downside. The common currency would suffer another round of selloff if Draghi sounds dovish on inflation and hints on a cut in December.
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US Session: Orders and Options Watch Print E-mail
Market Overview | Written by ActionForex.com | Nov 06 13 14:38 GMT
GBP: The British pound retreated from intra-day high of 1.6118 made in London, offers at 1.6100-10 were filled but more sell orders are still noted at 1.6125 and 1.6140-50, fresh selling interest should emerge around 1.6180 and 1.6200. On the downside, bids are raised to 1.6065, 1.6050 and 1.6025-35 (stops below 1.6020), more buy orders are located at 1.5990-00, 1.5960 and 1.5940 (stops below), decent demand remain at 1.5925 and 1.5900-10 with stops placed below 1.5890.
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Mid-Day Report: Sterling Stays Firm on Production Data Print E-mail
Market Overview | Written by ActionForex.com | Nov 06 13 13:36 GMT
Sterling extends this week's rebound on better than expected production data. Industrial production rose 0.9% mom, 1.2% yoy in September versus expectation of 0.6% mom, 1.8% yoy. Manufacturing production rose 1.2% mom, 0.8% yoy versus expectation of 1.1% mom, 0.8% yoy. BRC shop price index dropped -0.5% yoy in October. BoE will announce rate decision tomorrow. It's widely expected that the central bank will keep rates unchanged at 0.5% and maintain the asset purchase target at GBP 375b. But the more important event would be the quarterly inflation report to be released on November 13.
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European Session: Orders and Options Watch Print E-mail
Market Overview | Written by ActionForex.com | Nov 06 13 08:35 GMT
EUR: The single currency found renewed buying interest just above this week's low of 1.3442 and has rebounded in Asia, offers at 1.3495-00 and 1.3520 were filled, however, offers are still noted at 1.3525 (stops above), more sell orders are reported at 1.3540-50, 1.3565 as well as 1.3585, fresh selling interest should emerge around 1.3600, 1.3625 and 1.3640-50. On the downside, bids are noted at 1.3465-75 and also in good size at 1.3445-50 with stops building up below 1.3440, fresh demand should emerge around option barrier at 1.3400 (stops below). Option expires today include: 1.3350, 1.3450, 1.3500, 1.3600, 1.3620, 1.3650, 1.3750 and 1.4000.
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Daily Report: Treasury Yields Jumped, Dollar Mixed Print E-mail
Market Overview | Written by ActionForex.com | Nov 06 13 02:55 GMT
Dollar is rather mixed this week, firm against Euro, Swissy and Canadian, but weakened against Sterling, Aussie, Kiwi and Yen. US equities also lacked direction as DOW and S&P 500 are stuck in tight range near to the record high. Investors remained cautious ahead of the two key event risks this week, including the ECB meeting and US non-farm payroll report. However, bond traders seemed to be jumping the gun. 10 year yield staged a strong rally to close at 2.662% overnight, comparing to October's low of 2.471%. 30 year yield also jumped to close at 3.758% versus October's low of 3.565%.
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US Session: Orders and Options Watch Print E-mail
Market Overview | Written by ActionForex.com | Nov 05 13 14:33 GMT
EUR: The single currency continued to trade lower in part due to cross-selling against sterling, bids at 1.3475 were filled, however, buy orders are still noted from 1.3460 all the way down to 1.3430 (stops below), more sizeable bids are tipped at 1.3400-10 and further out at 1.3385. On the upside, offers are lowered to 1.3500 and 1.3525, more sell orders are reported at and 1.3540-50, 1.3565 as well as 1.3585, fresh selling interest should emerge around 1.3600, 1.3625 and 1.3640-50.
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Mid-Day Report: Sterling Jumped on PMI Services, Euro Soft Print E-mail
Market Overview | Written by ActionForex.com | Nov 05 13 12:55 GMT
Sterling rebounds strongly earlier today with support from solid services data. The PMI services improved to 62.5 in October, versus expectation of falling form 60.3 to 60.0. That was the strongest reading in 16 years since May 1997. Markit Chief economist Williamson noted that the UK economic recovery "moved up a gear again in October". And, while "manufacturing, services and construction all continued to see very strong rates of expansion, pointing to an ongoing broad-based upturn", "it is the services sector which, due to its sheer size, is the major driving force." The composite PMI also rose to the highest level on record since 1996. Also released from UK, BRC sales monitor rose 0.8% yoy in October. GBP/USD managed to defend 1.5893 near term support and is back trading above 1.6 at the time of writing. Meanwhile, EUR/GBP dived through 0.8429 support which indicates near term weakness for 0.8332 low.
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European Session: Orders and Options Watch Print E-mail
Market Overview | Written by ActionForex.com | Nov 05 13 09:09 GMT
EUR: The single currency met offers above 1.3520 and has retreated, however, bids are still noted at 1.3475 and from 1.3460 all the way down to 1.3430 (stops below), more sizeable bids are tipped at 1.3400-10 and further out at 1.3385. On the upside, offers remain at 1.3525 and 1.3540-50, more sell orders are reported at 1.3565, 1.3585 and 1.3600, fresh selling interest should emerge around 1.3625 and 1.3640-50. Option expires today include: 1.3400, 1.3450, 1.3500, 1.3520, 1.3525, 1.3530, 1.3560, 1.3600, 1.3615 and 1.3620.
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Daily Report: Aussie Pares Gain after RBA, Services Data Watched Print E-mail
Market Overview | Written by ActionForex.com | Nov 05 13 05:07 GMT
Aussie pares some of this week's gain after RBA left rates unchanged at 2.50% as widely expected. The central bank maintained the view that growth would be below trend in near term. And, inflation would be below target over the next one to two years. Also, it added that unemployment rate could continue to edge higher while government spending is forecast to be "quite weak". Meanwhile, the central bank also acknowledged strengthening in housing and equities which would support investments. Regarding the exchanged, its maintained that Aussie is still "still uncomfortably high" and "a lower level of the exchange rate is likely to be needed to achieve balanced growth in the economy." Overall, the statement sounded a bit more dovish than the prior one and suggested that RBA still leaves the room open for another rate cut next year.
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US Session: Orders and Options Watch Print E-mail
Market Overview | Written by ActionForex.com | Nov 04 13 14:40 GMT
EUR: The single currency bounced offer intra-day low of 1.3442 on short-covering and offers at 1.3510 were filled, however, sell orders are reported at 1.3520, 1.3540 and 1.3565-85 area, more selling interest is tipped at 1.3600-10 with stops building up above 1.3620-25 but sizeable offers remain at 1.3640-50. On the downside, bids are tipped at 1.3475-80 and in good size from 1.3450 down to 1.3430 (stops below), fresh demand should emerge around 1.3400-10 and further out at 1.3385.
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Mid-Day Report: Euro Recovering After Initial Dive, Sterling Lifted by PMI Print E-mail
Market Overview | Written by ActionForex.com | Nov 04 13 12:34 GMT
After brief initial weakness, Euro recovered against dollar and is back trading above 1.35 level at the time of writing. Nonetheless, strength of the recovery is rather weak. The common currency might consolidate for a while ahead of Thursday's ECB meeting. But risk is definitely staying on the downside. The much lower than expected inflation reading, at 0.7% yoy in October, comparing to ECB's target of 2%, triggered some speculations that the central bank will cut rates again as soon as this week. UBS, RBS and BofA are among those who are expecting a cut on November 7. But, the majority of the markets still believed that ECB will keep rates unchanged this week and hold fire until December. By then, ECB will release the latest staff projections on inflation and growth. Nonetheless, even if ECB does stand pat this week, any dovish message from president Draghi that hints on a December cut will trigger another wave of Euro selling. The common currency will remain vulnerable. Data released From Eurozone saw Sentix investor confidence improved to 9.3 in November, PMI manufacturing was finalized at 51.3 in October.
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European Session: Orders and Options Watch Print E-mail
Market Overview | Written by ActionForex.com | Nov 04 13 08:58 GMT
EUR: The single currency broke 1.3500 option barrier and stop-selling pressed the pair down to as low as 1.3442 before recovering, offers at 1.3500 were filled, however, sell orders are reported at 1.3510-20, 1.3540 and 1.3565-85 area, more selling interest is tipped at 1.3600-10 with stops building up above 1.3620-25 but sizeable offers remain at 1.3640-50. On the downside, bids are tipped at 1.3475-80 and in good size from 1.3450 down to 1.3430 (stops below), fresh demand should emerge around 1.3400-10 and further out at 1.3385. Option expires today include: 1.3350 and 1.3550.
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Daily Report: Aussie Rises on Retail Sales; Euro Extends Decline Print E-mail
Market Overview | Written by ActionForex.com | Nov 04 13 03:34 GMT
Aussie strengthens as the week starts on the back of stronger than expected retail sales data. Sales rose 0.8% mom in September versus consensus of 0.4% mom. Prior month's figure was also revised up from 0.4% mom to 0.5% mom. Solid services data from China also gave it a mild boost. The non-manufacturing PMI index rose to 56.3in October, highest level this year and suggested that growth momentum in China remained robust. Also supporting the Aussie was comment from ANZ bank CEO Michael Smith, who noted that there won't be a massive reduction in Aussie's strength until tapering in US. And, he expected tapering won't happen until "well into next year". The Aussie was indeed the strongest performer in October as markets started expect delay in Fed's tapering and it remained the strongest one so far this month as speculation of ECB rate cut gave it a boost in crosses. Nonetheless, with 0.9525 minor resistance intact, near term bias in AUD/USD remains mildly on the downside.
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Weekly Review and Outlook: Euro Reversing on Rate Speculation, ECB Watched This Week Print E-mail
Market Overview | Written by ActionForex.com | Nov 02 13 10:38 GMT
Sentiments towards Euro had a drastic turn last week. Broad based, steep selloff was seen in the common currency as much lower than expected inflation reading triggered speculations that ECB could cut interest rates from the current 0.50% historical low, as soon as this week. Weakness in Euro dragged down Sterling and Swiss Franc. On the other hand, dollar was lifted by less dovish than expected FOMC statement and strengthened against all other major currencies, except Canadian dollar. The loonie was boosted even further by stronger than expected GDP growth data. Yen, on the other hand, was mixed. In other markets, S&P 500 rose to new record high of 1761.64 before retreating. DOW also caught up and reached new record high of 15615.55.
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US Session: Orders and Options Watch Print E-mail
Market Overview | Written by ActionForex.com | Nov 01 13 13:53 GMT
GBP: The British pound dropped quite sharply today since London morning, buy orders at 1.5990-00 and from 1.5980 down to 1.5965 were filled, however, mixture of bids and stops is seen at 1.5940-50, fresh demand should emerge around 1.5925 and 1.5900. On the upside, offers are lowered to 1.6000-10 and from 1.6050 up to 1.6080, more selling interest is expected at 1.6100 (stops above 1.6110), 1.6125 and 1.6140-50, sizeable sell orders should emerge around 1.6175 and 1.6200.
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Mid-Day Report: EUR/USD Heading to 1.35 on Broad Based Euro Weakness Print E-mail
Market Overview | Written by ActionForex.com | Nov 01 13 13:12 GMT
Euro extends this week's decline against other major currencies today with EUR/USD now heading back to 1.35 level. Sharp moderation in flash Eurozone inflation in October raised speculations that the ECB would implement further easing measures at upcoming meetings. Meanwhile, the monetary condition has been tightened due to strong euro and a shrinking ECB balance. Some kinds of stimulus is urgently required to bolster the economic recovery. Yet, whether the tool would be reduction in policy rates or provision of liquidity remains uncertain.
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European Session: Orders and Options Watch Print E-mail
Market Overview | Written by ActionForex.com | Nov 01 13 09:08 GMT
EUR: The single currency continued to fall after this week's selloff, bids and stops at 1.3600 barrier, 1.3575-80 and 1.3550 were tripped, however, buy orders are still noted at 1.3525-30 and 1.3500-10 (stops below barrier at figure), fresh demand should emerge around 1.3475-85 as well as 1.3450. On the upside, offers are lowered to 1.3585-1.3600 area and 1.3625, more sell orders are located from 1.3650 up to 1.3670 and 1.3700-10. Option expires today include: 1.3570, 1.3600, 1.3615, 1.3680 (large), 1.3700 (large) and 1.3750.
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Daily Report: Euro Stays Weak on Easing Speculations Print E-mail
Market Overview | Written by ActionForex.com | Nov 01 13 07:12 GMT
Euro is set to be the weakest currency this week as yesterday's sharp decline continues. The common currency was pressured by speculation of additional easing from ECB next wee. The October CPI reading released yesterday dropped sharply to a four year low of 0.7%, well below ECB's 2% target. It's perceived that ECB would see that as a growing threat of deflation. There were talks that ECB could either cut interest from the current historical low or announce another LTRO.
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