Mid-Day Report: Canadian Dollar Surges on Jobs, Yen Tumbles on US Retail Sales, Franc Strong

Canadian dollar surges in early US session after stronger than expected job report which showed 20.9k expansion versus expectation of 17.5k in February. Unemployment rate also fell to 8.2%. USD/CAD broke out of the five month range and dived through 1.02 level. On the other hand, Swiss franc is also sharply higher today as nothing special was triggered by yesterday's event risk of meeting. EUR/CHF drops through 1.46 level and is heading to February's low of 1.4577 where SNB intervened aggressively.

Elsewhere, yen remains generally soft on speculation of imminent easing expansion from BoJ next. Yen is sold off further after stronger than expected retail sales report from US which saw 0.3% growth in February with ex auto sales up strongly by 0.8%. Other data released today saw Japan industrial production rose 2.7% mom, 18.5% yoy iN January. Eurozone industrial production rose 1.7% mom, 1.4% yoy in January.

USD/CAD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0204; (P) 1.0263; (R1) 1.0297; More.

USD/CAD drops sharply to as low as 1.0154 today and the strong break of 1.0205 low indicates that medium term down trend has resumed. Short term outlook will now remain bullish and further decline should be seen towards 161.8% projection of 1.0779 to 1.0369 from 1.0679 at 1.0016 next, which is close to parity. On the upside, break of 1.0322 resistance is needed to indicate that USD/CAD has bottomed. Otherwise, any interim consolidation should be brief. .

In the bigger picture, the strong break of 1.0205 support (2009 low) invalidated our view and indicates that whole down trend from 2009 high of 1.2063 is still in progress and has resumed. Next medium term target will be 100% projection of 1.3063 to 1.0784 from 1.1723 at 0.9444. We'll now stay bearish as long as 1.0779 resistance holds.

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