Daily Report: In Search for Direction

Dollar is back under pressure again as stocks and commodities rebound. Following the 172pts rebound in DOW, Nikkei opened higher today and is back to 9877, up 81 pts. Crude oil is back above 71 level after diving to as low as 61.37 earlier this week while Gold is also back above 944 level. Nevertheless, note that the outlook in greenback is still rather unclear. The developments in GBP/USD and AUD/USD are supporting new high in these pairs, i.e. new low in dollar. However, USD/CHF is still in favor to extend recent rebound from 1.0590. While some pull back might be seen in USD/CAD, the whole rise from 1.0784 is still in healthy shape. The outlook in EUR/USD is also mixed with somewhat 50/50 chance of breakout of this week's range on either side. Markets are still in search for direction.

Looking at the dollar index, the failure to take out 80.94 resistance provided no confirmation that recent consolidation has completed. But after all, as note before, the three wave structure of the fall from 81.36 to 79.56 is still supporting that case that it's corrective in nature and thus, suggest that there should at least be another rise to resume rebound from 78.33. We'll continue to favor this bullish case as long as 79.19 support holds.

On the data front, New Zealand Q1 GDP dropped more than expected by -1.0% qoq, -2.7% yoy. Japan national core CPI dropped -1.1% yoy in May, inline with expectation. All industry index rose more than expected by 2.6% mom in April. Germany import price fell more than expected by -10.4% yoy in May. Looking ahead, Swiss KOF leading indicator, German flash CPI, UK Nationwide house price and US personal income and spending will be featured.

Personal income is anticipated to have risen +0.3% in May after rising +0.5% in April as driven by government stimulus such as tax cut and Social Security payment of $250. The latter should have increased real disposable income by around 2%. However, as the payment was one-off, there's a risk for the rate of change in income to turn negative in June. Personal spending should have increased +0.4% during the month, signaled by strong auto sales (9.9M units) as well as stable retail sales excluding auto and building materials (+0.4% in May). There is also possibility that April's reading may be upwardly revised.

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 95.52; (P) 96.04; (R1) 96.48; More.

With 95.61 minor support intact, another rise is still mildly in favor in USD/JPY. As mentioned before, fall from 98.87 has possibly completed at 94.87 already considering bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD. Break of 97.18 resistance will confirm this case and bring retest of 98.87 next. On the downside, below 95.61 will dampen this view and turn outlook neutral first. Also, while another fall cannot be ruled out for the moment, focus will remain on reversal signal in case of another fall since we're holding on to the view that fall from 98.87 should be contained by 93.84/94.44 support

In the bigger picture, price actions from 99.67 are treated as consolidation in the larger up trend from 87.12 only, in form of triangle pattern. Fall from 98.87 is viewed as the final leg of such consolidation and should be contained above 93.84 support to conclude the consolidation. Break of 98.87 will be an important signal that whole rally from 87.12 is resuming and break of 101.43 will pave the way to next key level at 110.65.

However, note that a break below 93.58/84 support zone will invalidate the bullish case. Instead, it will revive the bearish case that USD/JPY has completed a head and shoulder top (ls: 99.67, h: 101.43, rs: 98.87) and will in turn indicate that whole down trend from 124.43 is still in progress.

Economic Indicators Update

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