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Daily Report: Euro Dips Further after IMF GFSR Report Print E-mail
Action Insight Archives | Written by | Oct 10 12 06:22 GMT

Daily Report: Euro Dips Further after IMF GFSR Report

Euro continues to correct lower against other major currencies after IMF warned that the Eurozone is exposed to a "downward spiral of capital flight, breakup fears and economic decline". In the Global Financial Stability Report, IMF said that risks to financial stability have increased since April as "confidence in the global financial system has become very fragile". And, "intensification of the crisis has manifested itself in capital outflows from the periphery to the core at a pace typically associated with currency crises or sudden stops." And IMF predicted that European banks might need to offload as much as $2.8b in assets over the next two years to lower their exposures. That's $200b higher than the estimate back in April. Yesterday, IMF lowered estimates of global GDP to 3.3% for this year and 3.6% for 2013.

In the Ecofin meeting held Tuesday, it's decided that Portugal would be given an extra year to meet its deficit target and "the recommendation sets deficit targets of 5.0 % of GDP for 2012, 4.5 % of GDP for 2013 and 2.5 % of GDP for 2014". Regarding the banking union, Dutch Finance Minister Jan Kees de Jager stated that it is difficult for the EU to create a single mechanism for banking supervision (the banking union) by the deadline of January 1. Disappointedly, there's no progress on Spain's request for bailout.

Technically, EUR/USD is set to dip to 1.28 and below to extend recent consolidation. EUR/JPY will also take out 100 psychological level to 99.63 support. EUR/GBP looks topped below recent resistance of 0.8114 is possibly heading back to 0.8 and below. EUR/AUD is still heading back to 1.2328/2552 support zone. So overall, Euro will likely be soft in near term. Though, the larger outlook is still bullish in the common currency and thus, we'd expect the current weakness in Euro to be relatively limited.

Fed Vice Chairman Yellen pledged that it will unwind the asset purchases "in a timely manner" at appropriate time to avoid inflationary pressures. She also emphasized that "stronger US growth is beneficial for the entire global economy". Yellen also said it's not Fed's intention to make capital flows more difficult and the emerging nations will have tools to manage that.

BoE Governor said that total output in UK now is "some 15% below an extrapolation of its precrisis trend" and he warned that the "gap is likely to persist for some time." King said that there is "no technical limit" on asset purchases, but there are "limits to what monetary policy as such can do."HE also said that the current difficulties in solving the European crisis bore a comparison with the disputes in the 1920s over German war reparations that was "too poignant to dwell on".

On the data front, Australian westpac consumer confidence rose 1.0% in October. Japan machine tool orders dropped -3.0% yoy in September. US will release wholesale inventories and Fed's Beige Book later today.

EUR/GBP Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8028; (P) 0.8064; (R1) 0.8085; More...

The break of 0.8057 minor support suggests that rebound from 0.7922 might be finished at 0.8099 already. Intraday bias is mildly on the downside for deeper decline and EUR/GBP could dip back to 0.7922 support. But at this point, we'd stay cautiously bullish as long as 0.7886 support holds and rebound from 0.7755 is still in favor to continue. Above 0.8099/8114 will target 38.2% retracement of 0.9083 to 0.7755 at 0.8262 next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.9799 are treated as a long term consolidation pattern with fall from 0.9083 as the third leg. Strong support is expected inside 0.7693/8186 support zone to conclude the consolidation. The breach of the channel resistance and bullish convergence condition in daily MACD are signs of reversal. Break of 0.8152 resistance should strongly suggest that whole correction fro 0.9799 are completed and would pave the way to 0.9083/9799 resistance zone first.

EUR/GBP 4 Hours Chart

EUR/GBP Daily Chart

Economic Indicators Update

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:30 AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence Oct 1.00% 1.60%
6:00 JPY Machine Tool Orders Y/Y Sep P -3.00% -2.70%
14:00 USD Wholesale Inventories Aug 0.40% 0.70%
18:00 USD Fed Beige Book

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