Mid-Day Report: Dollar Rally Limited by Oil Rebound
Dollar surged across the board earlier today after disappointing data from Eurozone. However, such strength was short lived as the greenback is back under pressure following oil's rebound from $112 level to above $117 level. Hurricane Gustav, which happens to be headed into Gulf of Mexico is threatening oil infrastructure. Economic data from US are generally slightly above expectation. Conference board consumer confidence improved more than expected to 56.9 in Aug. New home sales climbed 2.4% from downwardly revised 0.503m to 0.515m annualized rate in Jul. S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI showed -15.9% fall in Jun, above expectation of -16.2%. Focus will now turn to FOMC minutes.
Euro was pressured across the board after the release of Germany Ifo. Business climate index dropped sharply from 97.5 to 94.8 in Aug, hitting a three year low. Expectation index also dropped sharply from 90 to 87.0. Recent weakness in economic data and deterioration in sentiments prompted some speculations that the next move from ECB will be a cut though the central bank is still expected to be on whole for a considerable period of time despite strong inflation. Other data from Eurozone saw Germany Gfk consumer confidence dropped more than expected to 1.5. Q2 GDP in Germany was finalized at -0.5% qoq, 3.1% yoy.
USD/CAD Mid-Day Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0462; (P) 1.0488; (R1) 1.0537; More.
USD/CAD's recovery from 1.0418 was limited below 1.0593 resistance and weakens again in early US session. Outlook remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, below 1.0418 will indicate that correction from 1.0727 is still in progress. Though, downside of the correction is expected to be contained above 1.0273 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 0.9974 to 1.0727 at 1.0262) and bring rally resumption. ON the upside, break of 1.0593 minor resistance will flip intraday back to the upside for 1.0727 high. Break will indicate recent rally has resumed for 1.0791/98 cluster resistance.
In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 0.9056 is still in progress towards mentioned cluster resistance at 1.0791/98 (61.8% retracement of 1.1874 to 0.9056 at 1.0798, 61.8% projection of 0.9056 to 1.0378 from 0.9974 at 1.0791) first. Sustained break of 1.0791/98 will argue that rise from 0.9056 is probably more than just a correction in the long term down trend and will set the stage to test key long term resistance at 1.1874. On the downside, a break below 0.9974 support is needed to confirm that rise from 0.9056 has completed. Otherwise, further rally is still expected even in case of a deep pull back.
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Economic Indicators Update
| GMT |
Ccy |
Events |
Actual |
Consensus |
Previous |
Revised |
| 23:50 |
JPY |
Japan CSPI Jul Y/Y |
1.30% |
1.40% |
1.20% |
1.30% |
| 06:00 |
EUR |
Germany GDP Q/Q Q2 F |
-0.50% |
-0.50% |
1.50% |
1.30% |
| 06:00 |
EUR |
Germany GDP Y/Y Q2 F |
3.10% |
3.10% |
1.80% |
|
| 06:00 |
EUR |
Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence Sep |
1.5 |
2 |
2.1 |
1.9 |
| 08:00 |
EUR |
Germany Ifo Business Climate Aug |
94.8 |
97.1 |
97.5 |
|
| 13:00 |
USD |
S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y Jun |
-15.90% |
-16.20% |
-15.80% |
|
| 14:00 |
USD |
U.S. Consumer confidence Aug |
56.9 |
53 |
51.9 |
|
| 14:00 |
USD |
U.S. New home sales Jul |
0.515M |
0.53M |
0.53M |
0.503M |
| 14:00 |
USD |
U.S. New home sales M/M Jul |
2.40% |
-1.20% |
-0.60% |
-2.10% |
| 14:00 |
USD |
U.S. House price index M/M Jun |
0.0% |
-0.40% |
-0.30% |
-0.4% |
| 18:00 |
USD |
FOMC Minutes |
|
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|
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