Mid-Day Report: Volatile Stocks, Calm Currencies

Volatile prices actions continue today with Dow opens sharply lower and dives to below 8000 level briefly but rebounds strongly since then. The forex markets are relatively steady. Dollar and yen remain generally firm but struggle to ride on the falling global stock markets to make decisive break against Euro and Aussie. The Canadian dollar is sold off sharply across the board following Crude oil's weakness which sees it breaches $80 level briefly. Sterling, on the other hand, regains some ground on news that UK government is sending a delegation to Iceland in an attempt to end the rift over the bank dispute between the two countries.

US trade deficit came in narrower than expected at -59.1b in Aug. Import prices has largest fall in fives years of -3.00% mom in Sep. Canadian trade surplus widened to 5.8b in Aug. New housing price index was flat in Aug. Canadian job report was solid but offered no support to the Loonie. Job market in Canada added 106.9k jobs in Sep, much stronger than expectation of 11k. Unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.1% versus expectation of 6.2%. Swiss unemployment rate was unchanged at 2.4% in Sep.

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 97.89; (P) 99.81; (R1) 101.03; More.

USD/JPY recovers mildly after reaching as low as 97.91. While some volatility might be seen, short term outlook remains bearish as long as 101.48 resistance holds. The fall from 110.66 is expected to extend further to have a test on 95.77 low at least. On the upside, above 101.48 will turn short term outlook neutral and bring some more consolidation before resuming the decline.

In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 95.77 have completed at 110.66 with bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. Also, the three wave structure of such rise argues that it's just correction, or part of the correction to the longer term down trend from 124.13. Hence, deeper fall is now expected to retest 95.77 low. On the upside, above 106.14 will turn outlook mixed again and revive the case the rebound from 95.77 is possibly still in progress.

Forex News Digest

• U.S. Trade Deficit Shrinks to $59.1 Billion in August
• Growth in Canadian New Home Price Index Slows
• Canada's Merchandise Trade Surplus Broadens to $5.8 Billion
• FDIC Says It Has "Significant Latitude" to Seek Additional Powers
• Overnight News Recap: Global Equity Markets Melt on Financial Fears
• Canadian Economy Adds 106,900 Jobs In September
• European Market Recap: Stocks Melt Following Asian & North American Meltdown
• Yen Poised for Biggest Weekly Gains in 10 Years as Carry Trade Evaporates
• Asian Money Market Rates Rise as Central Bank Moves Fail to Unlock Credit
• Canadian Dollar Falls for a Seventh Day on Bets Credit Crisis Will Deepen
• Pound Falls to Five-Year Low on Concern U.K., Iceland Dispute May Escalate
• Three-Month Dollar Libor Climbs 7 Basis Points to Highest Level This Year
• Australia, New Zealand Dollars Drop Most This Week Versus Yen in 25 Years

More Forex News

Economic Indicators Update

For Crude Oil and Gold analysis, click here

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