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Action Insight: Special Reports
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Action Insight is the most popular section of the site, read by traders around the world. Our team of analysts work around the clock, analyzing the markets from technical and fundamental perspectives in providing the reports in this section to you.
- Market overviews covers major happenings in the markets as well as their impacts.
- Technical analysis of specific currency pair will be found in the technical outlook section. Covered pairs include EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD, EUR/JPY, EUR/CHF, EUR/GBP, GBP/JPY
- Special reports covers medium to longer term forecasts on exchange rates based on fundamentals, central bank meetings previews and reviews, plus any current issues that will have an impact on exchange rates.
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Special Reports |
Written by ActionForex.com |
May 09 13 13:20 GMT
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The BOE refrained from adding further stimulus at the May meeting, i.e. leaving the Bank rate unchanged at 0.5% and asset purchases at 375B pound, as business sentiment improved and stock markets soared. It is likely that the central bank would continue to stand on the sideline until Mark Carney is on board in July. Despite encouraging GDP growth in the first quarter of the year, expansion has been scarce since 2009. The central bank is still expected to implement further monetary easing later this year.
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Special Reports |
Written by ActionForex.com |
May 07 13 05:49 GMT
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The RBA cut the cash rate by -25 bps to 2.75% in May citing that domestic growth was 'a bit below trend' in 2H12 and this trend continued into 2013. Employment continued to grow but more slowly than the labor force. This resulted in the increase in unemployment rate. Inflation remained benign and paved the way for this rate cut. Further easing cannot be ruled out should the job market fail to improved markedly.
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Special Reports |
Written by ActionForex.com |
May 02 13 16:59 GMT
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The ECB cut the main refinancing rate by -25 bps to 0.5% in May, in response to the easing inflation and rising unemployment rate in the 17-nation Eurozone. Risks of further easing remain to the downside and President Draghi signaled that the central bank would not avoid negative deposit rate. The special liquidity facilities are also maintained until at least the middle of 2014.
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Special Reports |
Written by ActionForex.com |
May 02 13 04:20 GMT
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As widely expected, the Fed left its policy stance unchanged with asset purchases of 85B maintained. Yet, the policy statement was increasingly dovish with policymakers indicating that further easing would be adopted should the economic recovery stall. The central bank acknowledged economic growth at a moderate pace but admitted slowdown in inflation and was less enthusiastic on the job market. It also raised concerns that the negative effects to be imposed by fiscal tightening. The policy statement was also a reminder that QE can move in both direction, rather than market focus of reduction later in the year.
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Special Reports |
Written by ActionForex.com |
May 01 13 08:14 GMT
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There has been increasing conviction that the ECB would announce to cut interest rates at its Thursday meeting, thanks to the weakness in economic data. While disappointing German PMI and IFO, and the French business climate indicator had shown initial signs of vulnerability of the bloc's economic developments, moderate inflation and the rise in jobless rate released yesterday have reinforced easing bias. On the rate cut, the deposit rate, currently at zero, is expected to stay unchanged.
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Special Reports |
Written by ActionForex.com |
Apr 30 13 05:18 GMT
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The May FOMC meeting would not be an eventful one as policymakers are not expected to change the policy stance amidst the economic developments both domestically and globally. It is possible to have minor changes to the description of economic activity and financial conditions based on incoming data. Yet, the Fed would reiterate the targets on expected inflation and unemployment for tapering the stimulus. Indeed, if the Fed would start reducing monetary stimulus later this year, it would likely give some hints at this meeting. However, we believe this is unlikely given weaker growth and benign inflation data received recently. Rather, there might be indications that the Fed would keep buying longer than previously anticipated, thus increasing the amount of total purchases without changing the monthly pace.
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Special Reports |
Written by ActionForex.com |
Apr 26 13 12:16 GMT
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At the BOJ meeting in April, policymakers left the monetary measures unchanged. The policy rate was maintained at virtually zero and asset purchases stayed at an annual pace of 60- 70 trillion yen. The central bank, however, upgraded the economic outlook aggressively with economy expected to start picking up by the middle of this year. While differentiated on the inflation outlook, policymakers were unanimous in voting to leave the quantitative and qualitative measures unchanged at the meeting.
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Special Reports |
Written by ActionForex.com |
Apr 25 13 05:38 GMT
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The ECB banking lending report for 1Q13 delivered optimism of bank lending in Eurozone banks. Although tightening continued, the degree was less than before. In short, there are improvements in credit supply in general relative to demand while the corporate sector showed a more encouraging picture than the household sector. Further easing is expected but this might not have factored in the implications of the bank restructuring in Cyprus.
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Special Reports |
Written by ActionForex.com |
Apr 24 13 08:57 GMT
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The RBNZ left the policy rate unchanged at 2.5%. The accompanying statement was more upbeat than the previous one given more encouraging GDP and confidence data. Policymakers acknowledged that domestic economic growth has picked up and the reconstruction work in Canterbury has gained momentum. Yet, they warned of the rise in home price and the strength in New Zealand dollar. The central bank expected to leave the OCR unchanged through the end of the year.
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Special Reports |
Written by ActionForex.com |
Apr 16 13 05:22 GMT
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The RBA minutes for the April meeting suggested that Australia's economy has improved as helped by reduction in interest rates over the past months. Policymakers saw investment has improved in areas outside of the mining sector while housing and retailing sectors have also improved. Policymakers viewed that inflation remained benign, with inflation expected to remain within the target range of 2-3% for the foreseeable future and further easing remains possible.
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Special Reports |
Written by ActionForex.com |
Apr 11 13 10:57 GMT
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The relentless rise in AUDJPY over the past 6 trading days had brought the currency pair to levels not seen since 2007. Undoubtedly, the rally is to a large extent driven by the aggressive monetary easing policy announced by the new BOJ board last week. Historical trend suggests a negative relation between AUDJPY movements and Japanese investment in Australian bond markets. While this phenomenon continues to hold this time, it’s observed that Australian yields have dropped since the BOJ announcement. Meanwhile, despite preference of lower Australian dollar by the RBNZ, it does not seem likely that recently strength would lead to monetary easing.
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Special Reports |
Written by ActionForex.com |
Apr 11 13 05:32 GMT
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The March FOMC minutes signaled that policymakers were more upbeat on the economic developments, although concerns remained on the job market recovery. It was also revealed that the meeting contained vigorous debates about reduction of QE with the consensus that tapering might be appropriate later this year. Yet, recent soft data might delay actual implementation of the tapering. As Atlanta Fed President Lockhart stated today, the focus on the future of QE3 is 'premature' and he is concerned about a 'swoon' in the job market.
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Special Reports |
Written by ActionForex.com |
Apr 09 13 06:06 GMT
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China's headline inflation eased to +2.1% y/y in March from +3.2% a month ago while PPI slipped -1.9% after a -1.6% drop in February. Moderation in March's CPI was a relief for policymakers but the spike in February's data was to a large extent driven by seasonal factor, i.e. Lunar New Year. Going forward, inflation should remain benign due to continuous sluggishness of pork prices due to oversupply, suppression of global commodity prices and weaker-than-expected economic growth in China in the near-term. Meanwhile, there is no clear impact of recent H7N9 bird flu on inflation.
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Special Reports |
Written by ActionForex.com |
Apr 04 13 15:12 GMT
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The ECB announced to leave the main refinancing rate unchanged at 0.75% and added no new unconventional monetary easing measures in April. The central bank expected the economy in the Eurozone would recover later this year but uncertainty remains. Policymakers pledged to, in coming weeks, "monitor very closely all the incoming information on economic and monetary developments, and assess the impact on the outlook for price stability". They would stand "ready to act".
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Special Reports |
Written by ActionForex.com |
Apr 04 13 06:47 GMT
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The new BOJ board announced aggressive measures to combat deflation and boost the economy at the April meeting. Policymakers shifted its monetary policy target to the monetary base from the overnight call rate and pledging to double its government bond holdings in 2 years. Nikkei rebounded after the announcement while Japanese yen and bond yields slumped.
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Special Reports |
Written by ActionForex.com |
Apr 02 13 06:33 GMT
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As expected, the RBA left the cash rate unchanged at 3% in April. Policymakers stated that the current economic conditions justified leaving interest rates at a record low. Yet, the inflation outlook suggested that further easing is possible. Domestic economic growth was close to trend last year. However, the RBA restated that mining investment is peaking and other demand sources are needed to sustain growth. The government has not commented on the job market, probably due to the lack of material change from the previous meeting. Overall, the tone for this meeting remained dovish and further easing is still likely.
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Special Reports |
Written by ActionForex.com |
Mar 28 13 07:06 GMT
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The RBA's semi-annual Financial Stability Review indicated that global banking system has improved in general. Yet, it cautioned the risks ahead and warned that banks in the periphery 'are still experiencing elevated funding costs, deteriorating asset performance and weak profitability'. In Australia, the report suggested that banks are in a strong position and the improved global conditions since mid 2012 had helped lowered wholesale funding costs.
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Special Reports |
Written by ActionForex.com |
Mar 27 13 08:20 GMT
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EU finance ministers and the Cypriot government reached a deal to secure the bailout fund worth of 10B euro. Yet, market reaction was not optimistic at all with shares plummeting on concerns that the capital control such as deposit levy and haircut deposits used in this deal would be the template for future bailouts. Moreover, other concerns include a Greek-style recession and difficulties in implementation. The euro continues to fall against the US dollar amid the uncertainty ahead.
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Special Reports |
Written by ActionForex.com |
Mar 21 13 03:00 GMT
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As expected, Fed officials left the policy rate unchanged and the asset purchases at US$ 85B. Policymakers acknowledged improvements in economic developments since the January meeting but indicated the still-high unemployment rate would be a hindrance for the Fed to achieve its dual mandate. The staff projections were downgraded modestly to reflect restrictive fiscal policy and downside risks to growth.
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Special Reports |
Written by ActionForex.com |
Mar 19 13 10:31 GMT
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Eurozone finance ministers agreed on a bailout to Cyprus worth of 10B euro. The most striking aspect is, however, the bank level. Initially, it was proposed that a one-off levy of 6.75% will be imposed on bank deposits of less than 100K euro and 9.9% for above. Under this proposal, the stability levy is expected to increase the revenue by 5.8B euro and a key source of lowering the bailout amount from 17b euro to 'up to 10B euro. Other revenue measures include an increase in the tax on interest income and an increase in the corporate tax rate from 10% to 12.5%. These additional revenue measures are expected to bring the debt/GDP ratio to 100% by 2020.
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