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Action Insight: Special Reports
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Action Insight is the most popular section of the site, read by traders around the world. Our team of analysts work around the clock, analyzing the markets from technical and fundamental perspectives in providing the reports in this section to you.
- Market overviews covers major happenings in the markets as well as their impacts.
- Technical analysis of specific currency pair will be found in the technical outlook section. Covered pairs include EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD, EUR/JPY, EUR/CHF, EUR/GBP, GBP/JPY
- Special reports covers medium to longer term forecasts on exchange rates based on fundamentals, central bank meetings previews and reviews, plus any current issues that will have an impact on exchange rates.
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Special Reports |
Written by ActionForex.com |
May 23 12 10:30 GMT
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The BOE unveiled in the minutes for the May meeting that, while the members voted unanimously to leave interest rates unchanged, they were split in the asset purchase program. David Miles opted for increasing the size of purchases by 25B pound while Adam Posen indicated he might join Miles' camp at the next meeting even though he would leave the Committee when his term ends on August 31. The tone of the minutes was more dovish than the April one, reflecting concerns over the situation in the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis.
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Special Reports |
Written by ActionForex.com |
May 23 12 06:39 GMT
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The Bank of Japan announced to leave the uncollateralized overnight call rate unchanged at 0-0.1% and the Asset Purchase Program at 70 trillion yen. The next timing for the BOJ to implement further easing would be in July. By that time, policymakers would have known the outcome of the June FOMC meeting and the Greek election. Moreover, it’s also the time for the interim assessment of the BOJ’s April outlook. The biggest headache for the central bank is the undersubscription of the purchase program. The situation has deteriorated since mid-April and got more pronounced in May.
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Special Reports |
Written by ActionForex.com |
May 21 12 08:09 GMT
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During his field study in Wuhan, capital of China's Hubei province, Premier Wen Jiabao urged enhanced efforts to maintain economic growth which has moderated rapidly since the last quarter of 2011. Wen's comments indicated that the country has placed growth in a higher priority than before and more easing measures are anticipated to be put forward. We expect further RRR reduction. Yet, besides this, there are several other ways the government would consider in bolstering growth.
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Special Reports |
Written by ActionForex.com |
May 18 12 05:09 GMT
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Despite further banking reform, Moody's announced to downgrade 16 Spanish banks with ratings of Banco Santander (SAN) SA and Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA (BBVA), Spain's biggest lenders, cut 3 notches to A3. The rating agency stated that the downgrades were mainly due to reassessment of each bank's standalone credit quality which is expected to deteriorate further in the coming year. Moreover, downgrades of 5 banks were also due to anticipation of reduced support from the Spanish government. Both the EU and the IMF welcomed the latest round of reform announced in Spain earlier in the month. However, in our opinion, the 4 key measures, including additional provision requirements for banks, availability of government capital injections, creation of a framework for 'bad banks' and employment of independent audits, while indicating some progress for the restructuring, are rather modest and are not expected to have significant impacts on transforming the banking sector.
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Special Reports |
Written by ActionForex.com |
May 17 12 04:17 GMT
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The April FOMC minutes indicated that policymakers acknowledged improvements in economic growth but these remained insufficient to change its current accommodative policy stance. While there was slight change in language from the previous meeting, it appeared that the central bank turned mildly more dovish. Overall, the Fed continued to pledge that it would do more if the economy deteriorates further.
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Special Reports |
Written by ActionForex.com |
May 16 12 12:39 GMT
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The BOE released a dovish quarterly inflation report in May, lowering both inflation and GDP growth forecasts from February projections. Policymakers also cited the worsening situation in the Eurozone would affect the UK's path to recovery and there was a "risk of a storm heading our way from the continent".
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Special Reports |
Written by ActionForex.com |
May 16 12 07:46 GMT
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The Eurozone economy turned out to be better than expected in 1Q12. Notwithstanding consensus forecast that the region would technically fell to recession with two consecutive quarters of contractions, the flash GDP data came in flat, compare with 4Q12’s -0.3% drop. Despite the apparently stronger than expected growth figure, the upside surprise mainly concentrated in a few countries and more peripheral economies, e.g.: Italy, have confirmed sharp recession. Investors should remain cautious about the Eurozone economic outlook. While the preliminary data still has chance to be revised lower, deep contraction might actually be reflected in the second quarter due to member countries’ fiscal consolidation.
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Special Reports |
Written by ActionForex.com |
May 15 12 06:29 GMT
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The May minutes released by the RBA came in more dovish than expected. Together with the SMP released on May 4, it suggested that policymakers are forecasting more moderate inflation levels than previously anticipated. Overall, the chance of further rate cut is a tug of war between apparently improving domestic economic indicators released recently and the foggy external environment especially in the Eurozone.
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Special Reports |
Written by ActionForex.com |
May 10 12 08:55 GMT
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The Greek election result has dramatically raised market speculations of the country to exit the Eurozone. However, given that over 70% of voters in Greece prefer the country to retain in the 17-nation bloc and a default on Greek sovereign debts would be disastrous for the official sectors including the IMF, the ECB and the EU. We expect the Syriza party will fail to form a coalition government and trigger another election in June. Whether the Syriza will become the biggest party is uncertain. However, we expect the IMF and the EU will make more concessions with the new government, hoping to resolve the deadlock and alleviating the negative impacts of the current foggy situation. Yet, whether the compromise would resolve the sovereign problems in Greece is not guaranteed.
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Special Reports |
Written by ActionForex.com |
May 10 12 04:41 GMT
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China's 7-day repo rate dropped almost -30bps to settle at 3.34% yesterday amid expectations that the government will inject more liquidity to the market. Although speculations of a RRR reduction before the Labor holiday in early May was in vain, the PBOC did injected RMB 65B in cash through 7-day reverse repo on May 3. Judging from past experience, it is likely that the government will follow up with RRR cut in coming weeks, though increasing the liquidity in the market.
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Special Reports |
Written by ActionForex.com |
May 07 12 05:06 GMT
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Socialist Francois Hollande won the French election with 52% vote, making him the first socialist candidate to be elected since 1981. Hollande's victory has called an end to the German-Franco, or the "Merkorzy", ally regarding fiscal policies of the Eurozone. Indeed, the return of Socialist government after 30 years is expected to mark the come-back of traditional France ruling, one which might complicated the situation in the West.
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Special Reports |
Written by ActionForex.com |
May 03 12 16:41 GMT
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The ECB held the main refinancing rate unchanged at 1% in May despite slowdown in macroeconomic outlook. President Draghi stated that economic data received in the first 3 months of the year indicated "tentative stabilization" of economic activity at "low levels". However, despite downside risks, a gradual recovery should follow later in the year. Unlike market expectations, the central bank did not hint any further stimulus in coming months during the meeting.
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Special Reports |
Written by ActionForex.com |
May 01 12 05:10 GMT
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The RBA lowered the cash rate by -50bps to 3.75% in April as economic developments since the last meeting has weakened and inflation has moderated. The central acknowledged the growth later in the year would be 'below-trend' but a deep downturn is not likely. The Australian dollar, which slipped ahead of the meeting, declined further after the rate decision.
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Special Reports |
Written by ActionForex.com |
Apr 27 12 11:07 GMT
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The Bank of Japan increased monetary easy to boost the economic recovery and inflation in April. With unanimous vote, the central bank announced to expand its Asset Purchase Program by 5 trillion yen to 70 trillion yen with some adjustment in the composition of the portfolio. It also extended the deadline for completion of those purchases to end-June 2013 from end-2012.
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Special Reports |
Written by ActionForex.com |
Apr 26 12 04:32 GMT
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As expected, the Fed maintained the policy rate unchanged at 0-0.25% and did not add further monetary easing measures. While the post-meeting statement contained only modest changes from the previous ones, the latest economic projections sent a confusing outlook. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke reiterated that the central bank has 'prepared to do more as needed to make sure that this recovery continues and that inflation stays close to target'. The language to leave interest rates at exceptionally low level at least until mid-2014 remained unchanged.
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Special Reports |
Written by ActionForex.com |
Apr 25 12 04:39 GMT
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Investors would probably see confusing messages at the FOMC meeting in April though the policy decisions would have no change from the previous meeting. While Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and the post-meeting statement would focus on the moderated macroeconomic data since the March meeting, the staff projections would likely show more hawkishness. On the bottomline, the Fed would retain the reference that the Fed funds rate would stay at exceptionally low level at least until mid-2014. At the press conference, the Chairman would possibly not hint the direction of the monetary policy.
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Special Reports |
Written by ActionForex.com |
Apr 17 12 15:39 GMT
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The Bank of Canada, while leaving the policy rate unchanged at 1% since September 2010, delivered a more hawkish tone at the April meeting. Citing stronger momentum in domestic growth, better US outlook and the Eurozone's possible emergence from recession are adding confidence to policymakers. Yet, the downside risks on the world economic recovery would be due to high oil prices. Weighing all upside and downside risks, it's likely for the central bank to begin a rate hike by the first half of 2013.
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Special Reports |
Written by ActionForex.com |
Apr 17 12 05:11 GMT
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The April RBA minutes signaled that policymakers did not consider cutting interest rates appropriate at the meeting, despite softer employment market and downward revision in economic assessments. The possibility of a rate cut appears lower than what is priced in the market. Yet, the CPI print for 1Q12 would be a key determining factor for the monetary decision.
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Special Reports |
Written by ActionForex.com |
Apr 13 12 09:04 GMT
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Speeches from Fed officials have been directing market expectations of QE3. The FOMC minutes for the March meeting indicated that policymakers saw less urgency to implement QE3 due to improvement in the economic backdrop. Yet, the Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's speech regarding stimulus and the job market, and Vice Chairman Janet Yellen's comment that 'a highly accommodative policy stance to be appropriate' have once again sparked speculations on QE3. The current developments suggest that further QE is still likely, but only after completion of Operation Twist and upon rapid deterioration of economic growth.
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Special Reports |
Written by ActionForex.com |
Apr 11 12 10:43 GMT
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Market sentiment over China's economy has turned more optimistic since the beginning of April, after the encouraging report on March manufacturing PMI. Higher-than-expected inflation and improvement in bank lending have provided more evidence of a return of growth strength. Concerning the macroeconomic policy, the PBOC indicated a mild change in the monetary statement after the monetary policy meeting held on March 31. Yet, while the government policies would be less tight, there's no signal of a very accommodative stance in coming months.
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