|
|
|
Action Insight: Special Reports
|
Action Insight is the most popular section of the site, read by traders around the world. Our team of analysts work around the clock, analyzing the markets from technical and fundamental perspectives in providing the reports in this section to you.
- Market overviews covers major happenings in the markets as well as their impacts.
- Technical analysis of specific currency pair will be found in the technical outlook section. Covered pairs include EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD, EUR/JPY, EUR/CHF, EUR/GBP, GBP/JPY
- Special reports covers medium to longer term forecasts on exchange rates based on fundamentals, central bank meetings previews and reviews, plus any current issues that will have an impact on exchange rates.
|
|
Special Reports |
Written by ActionForex.com |
Feb 16 11 12:07 GMT
|
|
The pound slumped against the US dollar and the euro as the BOE revised lower it growth forecasts despite higher inflationary outlook in the near-term. In its quarterly inflation report, the BOE unveiled the outlook that inflation will most likely fall a little below the target in the second half of 2012, but the risks relative to that most likely path are 'skewed to the upside'. Growth forecasts were revised lower as higher interest rate assumption (1%) was used and GDP growth in 4Q10 was weak.
|
|
Read more...
|
|
|
Special Reports |
Written by ActionForex.com |
Feb 15 11 03:11 GMT
|
|
RBA's minutes for the February largely echoed what Governor Glenn Stevens said before the parliament last Friday. Policymakers were comfortable to leave the cash rate unchanged at 4.75%. While floods that had occurred in December and January in eastern Australia would have strong impact on the economy in the near-term, it would not affect the central bank's monetary policy which focuses on the medium-term outlook for the economy. Dependent of economic indicators, we currently retain our view that the RBA will resume tightening in the second quarter.
|
|
Read more...
|
|
Special Reports |
Written by ActionForex.com |
Feb 14 11 10:34 GMT
|
|
China's trade data surprised to the upside in January. Trade surplus halved to $6.5B during the month from December with growth in both imports and exports beat consensus. The set of data will unlikely ease tensions between China and the US over RMB appreciation. With the recovery and domestic demand continue to improve, trade surplus is expected to head upward in coming months. Meanwhile, risks to inflation skewed to the upside and the government is expected to accelerate tightening measures.
|
|
Read more...
|
|
Special Reports |
Written by ActionForex.com |
Feb 10 11 06:13 GMT
|
|
The ECB has been increasing concerned about inflationary pressure in the region. While the central bank decided to leave the main refinancing rate unchanged at 1% and reiterated current monetary policy as 'appropriate'. Several council members have voiced their worries about rising price levels. Indeed, Eurozone's inflation primarily comes from food and energy prices and these risks should continue to put upward risks to price levels in coming months. That said, the ECB should remain cautious in changing its accommodative policy stance as it's difficult to control food and energy prices through tightening. Moreover, euro's strength and the market's rate hike expectations have helped the central bank to do some of the tightening.
|
|
Read more...
|
|
Special Reports |
Written by ActionForex.com |
Feb 07 11 08:35 GMT
|
|
While the BOE will very likely leave the Bank rate at 0.5% and the asset-purchase program at 200B pound, the chance that the central bank will raise interest rates earlier than we had anticipated (4Q11) is increasing. Inflationary pressures have head sharply higher with the annual rate jumping to +3.7% in December from +3.3% in the prior month. The CPI has overshot the upper limit of BOE's target since January 2010. In January, the UK composite PMI rose to 56.5, a level close to where the BOE hiked rates in the past. PMIs rebounded in January from weather-affected readings in December, strengthening the case for a rate hike. While 2 MPC members favored raising interest rates higher, the majority is, however cautious and prefers to see more evidence of recovery before implementing tightening policies.
|
|
Read more...
|
|
Special Reports |
Written by ActionForex.com |
Feb 03 11 15:14 GMT
|
|
As expected, the ECB left the main refinancing rate unchanged at 1% as economic developments since the last meeting suggested interest rates remained 'appropriate'. While energy and commodity prices will continue to put upward pressure on overall inflation in the short-term, inflationary pressures over the medium to long term should remain contained.
|
|
Read more...
|
|
Special Reports |
Written by ActionForex.com |
Feb 02 11 06:35 GMT
|
|
The ECB is expected to leave the main refinancing rate unchanged at 1% and reiterate the current monetary policy as 'appropriate' in February. Concerning inflation, President Trichet will regard recent rise in inflation as temporary and stress that the ECB will be act if needed if it sees second-round effects from rising commodity prices. We retain our view that the central bank will leave the policy rate unchanged throughout 2011. However, an early rate hike cannot be ruled out if there are signs significant upside pressure from domestic prices.
|
|
Read more...
|
|
Special Reports |
Written by ActionForex.com |
Feb 01 11 05:28 GMT
|
|
The RBA left the cash rate unchanged at 4.75% for a second consecutive meeting after raising it for 7 times since October 2009. Policymakers appeared more optimistic towards the global economic outlook. Tightening bias remains and the central bank will probably hike interest rates again in 2Q11. Currently, the market has priced in a 16% chance the RBA will hike rates in June, up from +12% before the meeting.
|
|
Read more...
|
|
Special Reports |
Written by ActionForex.com |
Jan 31 11 08:39 GMT
|
|
This week is an eventful one in Australia with the RBA meeting on Tuesday and the release of the Statement on Monetary Policy on Friday. We expect policymakers to leave the cash rate unchanged at 4.75% as inflation has stayed in the lower half of the RBA's target band and extensive flooding in Queensland has disrupted the economy. Near-term growth and inflation outlook will be revised lower while those for the medium- to long-term should remain strong. The next rate hike will most likely happen in 2Q11.
|
|
Read more...
|
|
Special Reports |
Written by ActionForex.com |
Jan 27 11 04:53 GMT
|
|
The most noticeable change in the January FOMC meeting was the unanimous vote for maintaining the Fed funds rate unchanged at 0-0.25% and the asset-purchase program at $600B until June 2011. The situation was widely anticipated as Kansas City Fed President Thomas Hoenig, who had dissented the accommodative monetary policy since the beginning of last year, was not a voting member this year. Despite the rotation of voting members, the accompanying statement was largely the same as the December one. While acknowledging slight improvements in the growth and inflation outlook policymakers remained concerned about the absence of a meaningful drop in unemployment.
|
|
Read more...
|
|
Special Reports |
Written by ActionForex.com |
Jan 27 11 04:50 GMT
|
|
As expected, the RBNZ left the OCR unchanged at 3% in January. Despite disappointment in some economic data (3Q10 GDP unexpectedly contracted while retail sales continued to struggle), the central bank appeared less dovish than we and the market had anticipated. That said, today’s statement does not change our outlook on New Zealand and we retain the view that the central bank will not resume tightening until 2H11.
|
|
Read more...
|
|
Special Reports |
Written by ActionForex.com |
Jan 24 11 09:43 GMT
|
|
At the January FOMC meeting, policymakers will very likely leave the Fed fund rate unchanged at 0-0.25% and maintain the asset-purchase program announced in November 2010 at $600B. While acknowledging improvements in recent economic outlook, the Fed's stance will remain cautious. In the accompanying statement, the central bank will reiterate that it 'anticipates a gradual return' to mandate-consistent levels of employment and inflation.
|
|
Read more...
|
|
Special Reports |
Written by ActionForex.com |
Jan 21 11 06:29 GMT
|
|
Economic growth in New Zealand struggled in 2010. Domestic demand slowed while exports were damped by strong currency. In 2011, we expect the recovery will accelerate as driven by reconstruction after the earthquake happened last year and elevated commodity prices. Deleveraging remains a theme in New Zealand and NZD will weaken against USD and AUD, especially in the first half of the year. The RBNZ will remain cautious about tightening due to uncertainty in the pace of recovery in the US and Europe, as well as tightening in emerging countries, especially China. We expect the central bank will leave the policy rate unchanged until mid-2011 with possibility of delays.
|
|
Read more...
|
|
Special Reports |
Written by ActionForex.com |
Jan 19 11 09:59 GMT
|
|
The Australian dollar will be more sensitive to global risks/uncertainty in 2011. The country's growth driver will be shifted to external sector from domestic consumer and government spending. The floods across Queensland have added downside risk to Australia's outlook but it's impact on GDP growth and monetary policy should not be huge. We expect sovereign debt concerns in the Eurozone as well as tightening in emerging markets will impose negative impact to Australia's economic growth. The RBA left the cash rate unchanged at 4.75% at the last meeting in 2010. The central bank gave no indication on when the next move will be. This is normal as rate hike is not going to happen in the near-term – we expect it to come in 2Q11 the earliest.
|
|
Read more...
|
|
Special Reports |
Written by ActionForex.com |
Jan 18 11 15:00 GMT
|
|
As expected, the Bank of Canada left the overnight rate unchanged at 1%, after raising it by +25 bps in September. Policymakers revised up economic growth outlook for 2011 and 2012 but reiterated that the economy will not reach full output until the end of 2012 while core rate of inflation will not rise to 2% until then.
|
|
Read more...
|
|
Special Reports |
Written by ActionForex.com |
Jan 17 11 07:11 GMT
|
|
The BOC is expected to leave its policy rate unchanged at 1% in January. Given encouraging economic data released recently as well as the impact of US stimulus in 2011, the central bank may sound more hawkish in the accompanying statement and will probably raise its growth and inflation forecasts. As the January Monetary Policy Report (MPR) will be released on Wednesday, Governor Mark Carney may talk more about economic growth outlook in the accompanying statement. In terms of risks, the BOC will show concerns about appreciation of CAD. Certainly, lessened growth in the US and sovereign crisis in the Eurozone are also downside risks to Canada's growth. We expect the central bank will begin tightening in 3Q11.
|
|
Read more...
|
|
Special Reports |
Written by ActionForex.com |
Jan 10 11 07:16 GMT
|
|
No change in monetary policy is expected at the January ECB meeting. While economic data released since the previous meeting have shown better momentum in the region's economic activities, the central bank would view these as premature to alter monetary decisions. At the press conference, we expect lots of questions about ongoing sovereign debt crisis in peripheral countries and the ECB's tendency to purchase more debts.
|
|
Read more...
|
|
Special Reports |
Written by ActionForex.com |
Jan 07 11 09:54 GMT
|
|
Swiss franc is a traditional safe-haven asset than investors seek for during economic uncertainty. Therefore, it's normal to see the franc rise when risk appetite diminishes. For instance, capital inflows into Switzerland surged and sent CHF higher during the financial crisis. While the impact faded as global economy began to recovery in 2009, its appeal shone again in mid-2010 as sovereign crisis in the Eurozone spurred market fears. Strength in CHF has been the major issue in Switzerland as it threatens inflation stability. The SNB has clear concerns about currency strength so that it has not raised interest rates despite strong economic fundamentals. We expect the central bank to begin tightening monetary policy in 3Q11.
|
|
Read more...
|
|
Special Reports |
Written by ActionForex.com |
Jan 05 11 04:26 GMT
|
|
The December FOMC minutes showed that policymakers were positive towards the US economic outlook. Meeting participants saw some improvement in the near-term outlook and although economic growth 'had been moderate', it 'would pick up somewhat going forward'. Moreover, 'several' participants saw the risk of deflation as 'having receded somewhat'. However, the improvement was not sufficient to support an early exit to the $600B asset-purchase program. Instead, the Fed noted they have 'a fairly high threshold for making changes to the program', signaling extension and/or expansion of the program cannot be ruled out if conditions permit.
|
|
Read more...
|
|
Special Reports |
Written by ActionForex.com |
Jan 04 11 11:33 GMT
|
|
With prolonged sluggishness in domestic growth, Japan's economy in 2011 will depend mainly on exports, i.e. strength in its trading partners. Growth was probably negative in 4Q10 and will be sluggish in 1Q11 as government subsidies that fuelled demand growth in the first 3 quarters in 2010 ended. Growth may gather momentum later in the year as auto sales stabilize and exports improve as growth in the US and China pick up once again. Deflation has been a headache and it will likely persist at least into 2012. The Bank of Japan has been cautious in implement further monetary easing measures, resulting in relatively high real interest rate and strong Japanese yen. We expect the situation will change this year. US yields have been rising as investors look for better growth after extensions of tax cuts. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan will be forced to increase the size of the asset-purchase program in 1Q11. The situation will lower Japanese yields and yield spreads between Japanese and US bonds, hence pressuring the yen.
|
|
Read more...
|
|
|
<< Start < Prev 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Next > End >>
|
|
Page 10 of 30 |
Latest in Special Reports
|
Forex Brokers
Action Insight Newsletter |
|
|
|
