USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1257; (P) 1.1315; (R1) 1.1408; More.

USD/CAD retreats mildly after rising to 1.1447. Touching of 1.1270 minor support with 4 hours MACD staying below signal line, suggests that an intraday top is formed and turns outlook neutral for the moment. Nevertheless, we're still favoring the case that a short term bottom is at least formed at 1.0784. Break of 1.1447 will bring rally resumption to 1.1475/1.1814 resistance zone next. However, note that break of 1.0940 support will dampen this view and indicate that rise from 1.0784 has completed with three waves up, which in turn suggests that recent down trend is still in progress.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.3063 is treated as correction to impulsive rally from 0.9056 to 1.3063 and has met target support zone of 1.0297/0819 already. We're slightly favoring the case that such correction has completed at 1.0754 already. Break of mentioned 1.1475/1.1814 resistance zone will confirm this case and should at least bring strong rally to key cluster resistance at 1.2191 (61.8% retracement of 1.3063 to 1.7084 at 1.2192). Nevertheless, a break below 1.0784 will indicate that fall from 1.3063 is still in progress, probably to 61.8% retracement of 0.9056 to 1.3063 at 1.0587 before completion.

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