USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1565; (P) 1.1602; (R1) 1.1642; More.

USD/CAD's break of 1.1653 today suggests that recent rise from 1.0784 is resuming. At this point, intraday bias remains mildly on the upside as long as 1.1561 minor support holds. Sustained trading above 38.2% retracement of 1.3063 to 1.0784 at 1.1655 will target 1.1814 key resistance next. On the downside, though, below 1.1561 will indicate that consolidation from 1.1653 is still in progress for another test of 1.1439 support before completion. But after all downside is expected to be contained by 1.1226 clusters support (50% retracement of 1.0784 to 1.1653 at 1.1219) and bring rally resumption.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.3063 is treated as correction to impulsive rally from 0.9056 to 1.3063 and has met target support zone of 1.0297/0819 already. We're slightly favoring the case that such correction has completed at 1.0754 already, considering that daily MACD is now positive too. Break of mentioned 1.1475/1.1814 resistance zone will confirm this case and should at least bring strong rally to key cluster resistance at 1.2191 (61.8% retracement of 1.3063 to 1.7084 at 1.2192).

Nevertheless, a break below 1.1226 cluster support will indicate that such rise from 1.0784 has completed. In addition, the three wave structure will aurge that fall from 1.3063 is still in progress, probably to 61.8% retracement of 0.9056 to 1.3063 at 1.0587 before completion.

Subscribe to our daily and mid-day newsletter to get this report delivered to your mail box