USD/CAD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0543; (P) 1.0659; (R1) 1.0740; More.

USD/CAD's retreat from 1.0776 is still in progress and at this point, intraday bias is still mildly on the downside as long as 1.0645 minor resistance holds. Further retreat could be seen to 1.0410 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.9823 to 1.0776 at 1.0412), where focus is on. As long as this support holds, recent rally should still be in force and further rise is still in favor after completing consolidation. However, considering that 1.0791/98 is almost met, break of 1.0410 will indicate that whole rally from 0.9823 has completed with five waves up to 1.0776 with bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD and RSI.

In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 0.9056 is still in progress towards mentioned cluster resistance at 1.0791/98 (61.8% retracement of 1.1874 to 0.9056 at 1.0798, 61.8% projection of 0.9056 to 1.0378 from 0.9974 at 1.0791) first. Sustained break of 1.0791/98 will argue that rise from 0.9056 is probably more than just a correction in the long term down trend and will set the stage to test key long term resistance at 1.1874. However, break of 0.9974 support will indicate that whole medium term rise from 0.9056 has already finished. The three wave structure will indicate that it's just a correction in the long term down trend and much deeper decline could then be seen to retest 0.9056 low.

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