USD/CAD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1286; (P) 1.1396; (R1) 1.1606; More.

USD/CAD's strong rally is still in progress and reaches as high as 1.1647 so far. At this point, intraday bias remains on the upside as long as 1.1416 minor support holds. Next upside target is key medium term resistance at 1.1874 (38.2% retracement of 1.6196 to 0.9056 at 1.1783). On the downside, below 1.1416 will turn intraday outlook neutral first. But consolidation should be relatively brief as long as 1.1187 support holds. Break of 1.1187 is needed to indicate that a short term top is formed.

In the bigger picture, medium term up trend from 0.9056 is still in progress. Strength of such rally argues that whole long term down trend from 1.6196 (02 high) has bottomed out at 0.9056 too. Focus now turns to 1.1874 resistance and break will confirm this case. In such case, the up trend from 0.9056 could extend further to next long term fibnoacci level of 61.8% retracement of 1.6196 to 0.9056 at 1.3469. On the downside, below 1.0819 resistance turned support is needed to be the first signal that a medium term top is formed. Otherwise, outlook remains bullish even in case of deep pull back.

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