USD/CAD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0234; (P) 1.0273; (R1) 1.0300; More.

USD/CAD's rebound from 1.0223 resumes after brief retreat and reaches as high as 1.0346 so far in early US session. The development suggests that fall from 1.0744 is completed at 1.0223 already, ahead of 1.0205 key support as expected, and on bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD. Intraday bias is cautiously on the upside for 1.0412 resistance. Break there will confirm this case and target 1.0744 next. Also note that break of 1.0744 will confirm that whole correction from 1.0851 has finished and will bring stronger rise to 1.0851 and beyond.

In the bigger picture, we're still favoring the case that a medium term bottom is already in place at 1.0205 with bullish convergence conditions in daily MACD. As noted before, fall from 1.3063 is viewed as a correction to long term rise from 0.9056. Such correction might have already completed with three waves down to 1.0205 already (1.0784, 1.1732, 1.0205). Break of 1.0851 resistance will confirm this case and target 61.8% retracement of 1.3063 to 1.0205 at 1.1971 at least. On the downside, however, break of 1.0205 will invalidate this view and bring down trend resumption to parity instead.

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