USD/CAD Weekly Outlook

USD/CAD's choppy fall continued last week and reached as low as 0.9927 so far. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for 0.9891 support first. Break will extend the whole decline from 1.0656 towards 100% projection of 1.0656 to 0.9891 from 1.0522 at 0.9763. On the upside, break of 1.0070 resistance is needed to be the first signal of near term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom is in place at 0.9406 and price actions from there could either be consolidation to fall from 1.3063 or the third leg of the whole consolidation pattern from 2007 low of 0.9056. We're favoring neither case for the moment. Firstly, we'd expect 0.9406 to hold for a while at least. Secondly, the eventual pattern of the price actions from 1.0656 would decide whether rebound from 0.9406 is going to extend higher, or USD/CAD is just gyrating in range. We'll stay neutral first until the pattern from 1.0656 finishes.

In the longer term picture, there is no clear indication that the long term down trend from 2002 high of 1.6196 has reversed even though bullish convergence condition was seen in monthly MACD. Current development dampens the case that fall from 1.3063 is resuming the such down trend. But there is no change in the long term bearish view so far. A break of 0.9056 low is still anticipated after all the consolidative price actions complete.

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