USD/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0504; (P) 1.0549; (R1) 1.0613; More

USD/CHF continues to stay in tight range today and outlook remains neutral for the moment. As noted before, with bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD and RSI, rise from 0.9995 could have already completed at 1.0623. Hence further downside is still in favor. Below 1.0388 will suggest fall has resumed for lower channel support (now at 1.0230). However, break of 1.0623 will indicate whole rise from 0.9634 has resumed for 1.0890 support turned resistance.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom is in place at 0.9634. Subsequent rally from there is still treated as correction to whole medium term down trend only. Short term focus is on the mentioned channel support. On the one hand, as long as this channel holds, rebound from 0.9634 could still extend further to resistance zone of 1.0890 to 1.1596. With 38.2% retracement of 1.3283 to 0.9634 at 1.1028 in side the range. But strong resistance should be seen there.

However, break of the channel support will be the first alert that rise from 0.9634 has already completed with three waves up to 1.0623. Further break of 0.9995 support will confirm this case and bring deeper decline to retest 0.9634 low. Also, in such case, the corrective nature of the rise from 0.9634 will maintain the medium term bearish outlook.

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