USD/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1200; (P) 1.1282; (R1) 1.1349; More

USD/CHF's touching of 1.1227 minor support with 4 hours MACD dragged below signal line indicates that an intraday top is in place. Outlook is turned neural for the moment with risk of deeper fall. Nevertheless, consolidation should still be relatively brief as long as short term trend line support (now at 1.1072) holds. Above 1.1370 will indicate recent rally has resumed for next target of 1.1596 medium term cluster resistance (161.8% projection of 0.9634 to 1.0623 from 1.0010 at 1.1610.).

However, consider bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD and RSI, break of the trend line will argue that a short term top is in place and will bring deeper correction. Break of 1.1009 will confirm this case and encourage further fall towards 1.0632 resistance turned support.

In the bigger picture, the break of cluster resistance at 1.0999/1028 (100% projection of 0.9634 to 1.0623 from 1.0010 at 1.0999, 38.2% retracement of 1.3283 to 0.9634 at 1.1028) affirms the medium term bullish outlook, indicating that whole rise from 0.9634 is possibly impulsive in nature. Weekly MACD and RSI broke its down trend with weekly MACD turned positive also support this. Further rally should be seen to test next two cluster resistance, 1.1596 (161.8% projection of 0.9634 to 1.0623 from 1.0010 at 1.1610) and 1.1878 (61.8% retracement of 1.3283 to 0.9634 at 1.1889). On the downside, sustained trading below 1.0632 support will raise the odds that whole medium term rebound from 0.9634 has completed and will put focus back to trend line support at 1.0166.

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