USD/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0783; (P) 1.0847; (R1) 1.0886; More

At this point, intraday bias remains on the downside in USD/CHF as long as 1.0911 minor resistance and further fall could still be seen. But after all, the pull back from 1.1021 is expected to be contained above 1.0630 support and bring strong rally. We continue to favor the bullish case that USD/CHF has bottomed out at 1.0590 already and hence expect rise from there to resume sooner or later. Above 1.0911 minor resistance will flip intraday bias back to the upside. Further break of 1.1021 will target 1.1158/1740 key resistance zone.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.1963 is treated the third leg of the consolidation that started at 1.2296, which corrects the whole rally from 0.9634. With daily MACD staying well above signal line, such decline is tentatively treated as completed and hence, stronger rise is in favor to 1.1158/1.1740 resistance zone. Nevertheless, we'd favor that such consolidation is developing into triangle pattern and hence, upside should be limited by 1.1158/1740 initially and bring one more fall before completing the consolidation. However, break of 1.1963 will serve as the first signal that whole rally from 0.9634 is resuming. On the other hand, note that a break of 1.0590 low will indicate that fall from 1.1963 is still in progress for 1.0366, or even further to 100% projection of 1.2296 to 1.0366 from 1.1963 at 1.0033 before completing the consolidation from 1.2296.

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