USD/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0796; (P) 1.0842; (R1) 1.0909; More

With 4 hours MACD crossed above signal line, intraday outlook in USD/CHF is turned neutral for the moment. Pull back from 1.1021 might have completed at 1.0777 already. Break of 1.0911 resistance will affirm this case and flip intraday bias back to the upside for 1.1021 resistance first. Break will confirm whole rebound from 1.0590 has resumed for 1.1158/1740 key resistance zone. On the downside, below 1.0777 will indicate that pull back from 1.1021 is still in progress. But after all, even in case of another fall, downside is expected to be contained above 1.0630 support and bring strong rally.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.1963 is treated the third leg of the consolidation that started at 1.2296, which corrects the whole rally from 0.9634. With daily MACD staying well above signal line, such decline is tentatively treated as completed and hence, stronger rise is in favor to 1.1158/1.1740 resistance zone. Nevertheless, we'd favor that such consolidation is developing into triangle pattern and hence, upside should be limited by 1.1158/1740 initially and bring one more fall before completing the consolidation. However, break of 1.1963 will serve as the first signal that whole rally from 0.9634 is resuming. On the other hand, note that a break of 1.0590 low will indicate that fall from 1.1963 is still in progress for 1.0366, or even further to 100% projection of 1.2296 to 1.0366 from 1.1963 at 1.0033 before completing the consolidation from 1.2296.

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