USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0146; (P) 1.0186; (R1) 1.0236; More

USD/CHF continues to engage in choppy sideway trading above 1.0129 low today. Further consolidation cannot be ruled out but upside of recovery should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.0539 to 1.0129 at 1.0286. As discussed before, break of short term rising trend line support with daily MACD dipped into negative region argues that medium term rebound from 0.9634 is already completed at 1.0623. Sustained break of 1.0147 support will add more credence to this case and bring deeper fall to 0.9995 support. Also, note that short term risk remains on the downside as long as 1.0539 resistance holds even in case of a strong rebound.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom is in place at 0.9634. Subsequent rally from there is still treated as correction to whole medium term down trend only. Break of 1.0147 support will be another signal that such correction has completed. Further break of 0.9995 support will confirm this case and turn short term outlook bearish for 0.9634 low. However, strong rebound from 0.9995/1.0147 support zone will argue that rebound from 0.9634 is not completed yet and will put focus back to 1.0623 resistance.

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