USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0103; (P) 1.0167; (R1) 1.0205; More

USD/CHF's strong rebound and break of 1.0226 indicates that an intraday low is in place after failing to sustain below 1.0147 minor support Further consolidation should now be seen with risk of rebounding further to 38.2% retracement of 1.0539 to 1.0111 at 1.0274. Though upside should be limited below 61.8% retracement at 1.0376 and bring another fall. As discussed before, break of short term rising trend line support with daily MACD dipped into negative region argues that medium term rebound from 0.9634 is already completed at 1.0623. Sustained break of 1.0147 support will add more credence to this case and bring deeper fall to 0.9995 support. Also, note that short term risk remains on the downside as long as 1.0539 resistance holds even in case of a strong rebound.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom is in place at 0.9634. Subsequent rally from there is still treated as correction to whole medium term down trend only. Break of 1.0147 support will be another signal that such correction has completed. Further break of 0.9995 support will confirm this case and turn short term outlook bearish for 0.9634 low. However, strong rebound from 0.9995/1.0147 support zone will argue that rebound from 0.9634 is not completed yet and will put focus back to 1.0623 resistance.

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