USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0783; (P) 1.0840; (R1) 1.0919; More

As mentioned before, the corrective three wave structure of the fall from 1.0954 is supportive to the view that rise from 1.0590 is still in progress. As mentioned before, we're slightly favoring the case that a short term bottom is at least formed there. Above 1.0923 minor resistance will suggest that rise from 1.0590 is resuming and should then target 1.1158/1740 resistance zone next. On the downside, below 1.0760 will bring deeper pull back but based on the above view, we'd expect downside to be contained by 1.0650 support and bring rally resumption.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.2296 are treated as consolidation to whole rally from 0.9634, with first leg completed at 1.0366, second at 1.1963. The third leg from 1.1963 is tentatively treated as completed at 1.0590 already and hence, strong rally is now in favor to 1.1158/1.1740 resistance zone. Nevertheless, we'd favor that such consolidation is developing into triangle pattern and hence, upside should be limited by 1.1158/1740 initially and bring one more fall before completing the consolidation. However, break of 1.1963 will serve as the first signal that whole rally from 0.9634 is resuming.

On the other hand, note that a break of 1.0590 will indicate that fall from 1.1963 is still in progress for 1.0366, or even further to 100% projection of 1.2296 to 1.0366 from 1.1963 at 1.0033 before completing the consolidation from 1.2296.

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