USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0900; (P) 1.0959; (R1) 1.0997; More

USD/CHF dropped further to as low a s 1.0828 in early US session but is still holding above 1.0836 minor support. At this point, intraday bias remains neutral, though, another rise is still mildly in favor as long as 1.0836 holds. Above 1.0210 will bring rally resumption to 1.1158/1740 key resistance zone next. However, firm break of 1.0836 will dampen the near term bullish view and put focus back to 1.0590/0630 support zone.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.1963 is treated the third leg of the consolidation that started at 1.2296, which corrects the whole rally from 0.9634. With daily MACD staying well above signal line, such decline is tentatively treated as completed at 1.0590 and hence, stronger rise is in favor to 1.1158/1.1740 resistance zone. Nevertheless, we'd favor that such consolidation is developing into triangle pattern and hence, upside should be limited by 1.1158/1740 initially and bring one more fall before completing the consolidation. However, break of 1.1963 will serve as the first signal that whole rally from 0.9634 is resuming.

On the other hand, note that a break of 1.0590 low will indicate that fall from 1.1963 is still in progress for 1.0366, or even further to 100% projection of 1.2296 to 1.0366 from 1.1963 at 1.0033 before completing the consolidation from 1.2296.

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