USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0676; (P) 1.0780; (R1) 1.0855; More

USD/CHF's rebound from 1.0712 extends further in early US session and pushes 4 hours MACD above signal line. It's likely that correction from 1.1021 has completed and break of 1.0889 resistance will confirm this case and bring retest of 1.1021 first. Break will confirm whole rebound from 1.0590 has resumed for 1.1158/1740 key resistance zone. On the downside, while another fall cannot be ruled out for the moment, downside is expected to be contained above 1.0630 to complete the pull back and bring strong rally.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.1963 is treated the third leg of the consolidation that started at 1.2296, which corrects the whole rally from 0.9634. With daily MACD staying well above signal line, such decline is tentatively treated as completed and hence, stronger rise is in favor to 1.1158/1.1740 resistance zone. Nevertheless, we'd favor that such consolidation is developing into triangle pattern and hence, upside should be limited by 1.1158/1740 initially and bring one more fall before completing the consolidation. However, break of 1.1963 will serve as the first signal that whole rally from 0.9634 is resuming. On the other hand, note that a break of 1.0590 low will indicate that fall from 1.1963 is still in progress for 1.0366, or even further to 100% projection of 1.2296 to 1.0366 from 1.1963 at 1.0033 before completing the consolidation from 1.2296.

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