USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0225; (P) 1.0258; (R1) 1.0280; More

USD/CHF's rise from 1.0131 resumes after brief retreat and reaches as high as 1.0351 so far. As noted before, correction from 1.0506 should have completed at 1.0131 after hitting 61.8% retracement of 0.9916 to 1.0506 at 1.0141. Intraday bias remains on the upside for 1.0383 resistance first. Break there will argue that whole rally from 0.9916 is resuming. In such case, USD/CHF should be targeting 1.0590 medium term support turned resistance next. On the downside, below 1.0227 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again and turn focus back to 1.0131 support instead.

In the bigger picture, medium term fall from 1.1963 has completed with five waves down to 0.9916 already, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Also, the three wave consolidation from 1.2296 should be finished too. Current rise from 0.9916 is expected to extend further to medium term trend line resistance first (now at 1.1005). Sustained trading above the trend line will affirm the case that long term rise from 2008 low of 0.9634 is resuming for another high above 1.2296. On the downside however, a break of 0.9916 support will invalidate this bullish view and argue that medium term down trend in USD/CHF is still in progress for 0.9634 low.

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