USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0715; (P) 1.0760; (R1) 1.0793; More.

With 1.0809 minor resistance intact, consolidations from 1.0897 is still in progress and another fall might be seen. Nevertheless, downside is expected to be contained by 1.0608 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.0131 to 1.0897 at 1.0604) and bring rally resumption. On the upside, above 1.0809 minor resistance will flip intraday bias back to the upside. Decisive break of 1.0897 will confirm that whole rally from 0.9916 has resumed. Also, sustained trading above medium term trend line resistance (now at 1.0803) will pave the way to 161.8% projection of 0.9916 to 1.0506 from 1.0131 at 1.1086 next.

In the bigger picture, medium term correction from 1.2296 should have completed with three waves down to 0.9916 already. Current rise from 0.9916 is tentatively treated as resumption of the long term up trend from 2008 low of 0.9634. Sustained break of mentioned medium term trend line resistance (now at 1.0803) will further affirm this view. In such case, we'd be looking at stronger rise to 1.1963/2296 resistance zone in medium term. On the downside, sustained break of medium term rising trend line support (now at 1.0415) is needed to invalidate this bullish view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

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